TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Petr Fiser
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411411––––
Marian Melisek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Melisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Fiser above · Marian Melisek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 46 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Marian Melisek at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Petr Fiser 21–16 Marian Melisek Marian Melisek has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:35What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Melisek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Fiser
Wrong
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fiser 1370 vs Melisek 1364
Fiser
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fiser 80% vs Melisek 40%
Fiser
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fiser 70% vs Melisek 40%
Fiser
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fiser +3 · Melisek -1
Fiser
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFiser 1.91 / Melisek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melisek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166737
Fiser1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 18 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Melisek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 40 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it83% 24 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFiser7wins
AwayMelisek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFiser leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFiser83.3%5 of 6
AwayMelisek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fiser6Melisek4n = 10Fiser took 6 of 10
S2Fiser3Melisek7n = 10Melisek took 7 of 10
S3Fiser6Melisek4n = 10Fiser took 6 of 10
S4Fiser4Melisek2n = 6Fiser took 4 of 6
S5Fiser3Melisek1n = 4Fiser took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiserMelisekF − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.638.6+3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiserMelisekBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 169 vs 225 / 46540.8%48.4%69 / 169 vs 225 / 465Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekFiser 1.91/Melisek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 11 · 13:30P. Fiser541471111113M. Melisek4916117692
LJun 22 · 11:15P. Fiser29111170M. Melisek371313113
WJun 16 · 12:19P. Fiser44111111113M. Melisek36913771
WJun 16 · 11:15P. Fiser49111179113M. Melisek4158111162
LJun 8 · 10:30P. Fiser2210930M. Melisek341211113
LMay 29 · 10:15P. Fiser46116118102M. Melisek49811711123
WMar 20 · 14:15P. Fiser4611911153M. Melisek408118131
WFeb 19 · 14:00P. Fiser51119911113M. Melisek4071111742
WJan 21 · 17:45P. Fiser331111113M. Melisek218940
P. Fiser10
WSep 21 · 15:30E. Ondracek1.4431250P. Fiser2.631114113WSep 21 · 14:00P. Fiser1.731111113K. Polak2.004870WSep 16 · 16:33P. Fiser1.3391118113A. Skyba3.251171681WSep 16 · 15:30A. Skyba2.63841191P. Fiser1.4411119113LSep 16 · 15:00P. Fiser1.7311611672A. Akopyan2.00711711113WSep 16 · 14:00P. Fiser1.571110117113V. Coubal2.2571261182WJul 18 · 12:28M. Holub2.506680P. Fiser1.501111113WJul 18 · 11:30P. Fiser2.0041211113M. Holub1.731110381LJul 18 · 10:30P. Fiser2.50971161J. Jnr1.5011118113WJul 18 · 09:30P. Fiser2.2511411133J. Seeman1.579113111
M. Melisek10
LSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100LSep 21 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.611111113M. Melisek2.208860WSep 19 · 16:39M. Melisek1.401111103J. Seeman2.758860WSep 19 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83811611113L. Krutina1.8311211682LSep 19 · 14:30J. Seeman3.2511118113M. Melisek1.33291171LSep 19 · 14:00J. Hanacek1.6779111183M. Melisek2.1011116862LSep 17 · 17:09M. Melisek1.80481181E. Ondracek1.9111115113LSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113WSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113WSep 17 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.536150M. Melisek2.381111113
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