TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Karel Polak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11514121210––––
Marian Melisek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Marian Melisek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 64 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Karel Polak at 58.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 7–3 Marian Melisek Marian Melisek has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:32What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Polak
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1378 vs Melisek 1378
Melisek
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 40% vs Melisek 60%
Melisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 30% vs Melisek 50%
Melisek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -2 · Melisek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.61 / Melisek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Polak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166436
Polak1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 28 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Melisek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 62 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak7wins
AwayMelisek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak100%6 of 6
AwayMelisek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak6Melisek4n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S2Polak4Melisek6n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S3Polak3Melisek7n = 10Melisek took 7 of 10
S4Polak5Melisek1n = 6Polak took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakMelisekP − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.034.6−0.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakMelisekBasisWin rate · lifetime159 / 319 vs 226 / 46549.8%48.6%159 / 319 vs 226 / 465Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.61/Melisek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 17 · 16:00K. Polak46561311113M. Melisek44111111652
WJan 20 · 16:15K. Polak49116812123M. Melisek464111110102
WDec 20 · 11:15K. Polak331111113M. Melisek165560
WDec 19 · 14:10K. Polak4012116113M. Melisek381081191
WDec 19 · 11:30K. Polak4111118113M. Melisek36981181
LNov 26 · 16:00K. Polak184590M. Melisek331111113
LNov 16 · 17:45K. Polak2111730M. Melisek351311113
WNov 16 · 15:30K. Polak4011711113M. Melisek30511951
LNov 9 · 15:00K. Polak187380M. Melisek331111113
K. Polak10
LSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102LSep 21 · 14:00P. Fiser1.731111113K. Polak2.004870WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113WAug 9 · 05:30K. Polak1.5011117113J. Seeman2.50651181
M. Melisek10
WSep 21 · 15:00P. Fiser1.915440M. Melisek1.801111113LSep 21 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.611111113M. Melisek2.208860WSep 19 · 16:39M. Melisek1.401111103J. Seeman2.758860WSep 19 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83811611113L. Krutina1.8311211682LSep 19 · 14:30J. Seeman3.2511118113M. Melisek1.33291171LSep 19 · 14:00J. Hanacek1.6779111183M. Melisek2.1011116862LSep 17 · 17:09M. Melisek1.80481181E. Ondracek1.9111115113LSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113WSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113WSep 17 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.536150M. Melisek2.381111113
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