TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13160416
Played Sep 19Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118106––––
Jan Seeman
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Jan Seeman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-6
Point 54 set 3, 10-6
54 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 5–2 Jan Seeman Jan Seeman has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Seeman beat Melisek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Melisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.40 / Seeman 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Melisek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13160416
Melisek1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 40 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it82% 23 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Seeman2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 37 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMelisek5wins
AwaySeeman2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMelisek leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek100%4 of 4
AwaySeeman66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek4Seeman3n = 7Melisek took 4 of 7
S2Melisek3Seeman4n = 7Seeman took 4 of 7
S3Melisek4Seeman3n = 7Melisek took 4 of 7
S4Melisek3Seeman1n = 4Melisek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMelisekSeemanM − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.433.3+4.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekSeemanBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 464 vs 129 / 27448.3%47.1%224 / 464 vs 129 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekMelisek 1.40/Seeman 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 19 · 14:30M. Melisek29291171J. Seeman4111118113
WAug 16 · 15:00M. Melisek331111113J. Seeman219570
WJul 23 · 11:30M. Melisek4311912113J. Seeman325111061
WAug 23 · 15:30M. Melisek331111113J. Seeman218850
WMay 11 · 12:46M. Melisek45119311113J. Seeman3711111772
LMay 11 · 11:00M. Melisek2787120J. Seeman361111143
WApr 13 · 10:30M. Melisek521011911113J. Seeman4512711782
M. Melisek10
WSep 19 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83811611113L. Krutina1.8311211682LSep 19 · 14:30J. Seeman3.2511118113M. Melisek1.33291171LSep 19 · 14:00J. Hanacek1.6779111183M. Melisek2.1011116862LSep 17 · 17:09M. Melisek1.80481181E. Ondracek1.9111115113LSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113WSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113WSep 17 · 14:00E. Ondracek1.536150M. Melisek2.381111113LSep 16 · 12:29M. Melisek1.916101111102M. Hasman1.80111268123WSep 16 · 11:30M. Hasman1.80412691M. Melisek1.91111011113LSep 16 · 11:00M. Melisek2.258770A. Dvoracek1.571111113
J. Seeman10
LSep 19 · 15:30J. Seeman2.105111471J. Hanacek1.6711816113WSep 19 · 14:30J. Seeman3.2511118113M. Melisek1.33291171LSep 19 · 13:30J. Seeman1.73811611L. Krutina2.001191143WSep 17 · 12:29P. Moulis1.731161111112J. Seeman2.00311138133LSep 17 · 11:30J. Seeman1.731311101562J. Jnr2.0011131213113LSep 17 · 10:30J. Seeman1.5711791132L. Krutina2.25811119113WSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351WSep 13 · 16:59J. Seeman1.44101111123L. Krutina2.631288101WSep 13 · 16:00L. Krutina1.91491181J. Seeman1.8011118113LSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112
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