TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113118119––––
Karel Polak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9
53 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 3–8 Karel Polak Marian Melisek has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Polak beat Melisek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.50 / Polak 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Polak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13171931
Melisek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 62 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 32
Polak1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 28 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek2wins
AwayPolak8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek66.7%2 of 3
AwayPolak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek3Polak7n = 10Polak took 7 of 10
S2Melisek5Polak5n = 10split evenly
S3Melisek6Polak4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S4Melisek1Polak5n = 6Polak took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekPolakM − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.936.1−2.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 465 vs 160 / 32048.4%50%225 / 465 vs 160 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakMelisek 2.50/Polak 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 21 · 16:00M. Melisek27512100K. Polak371114123
LSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek44111111652K. Polak46561311113
LJan 20 · 16:15M. Melisek464111110102K. Polak49116812123
LDec 20 · 11:15M. Melisek165560K. Polak331111113
LDec 19 · 14:10M. Melisek381081191K. Polak4012116113
LDec 19 · 11:30M. Melisek36981181K. Polak4111118113
WNov 26 · 16:00M. Melisek331111113K. Polak184590
WNov 16 · 17:45M. Melisek351311113K. Polak2111730
LNov 16 · 15:30M. Melisek30511951K. Polak4011711113
M. Melisek10
LSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100WSep 21 · 15:00P. Fiser1.915440M. Melisek1.801111113LSep 21 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.611111113M. Melisek2.208860WSep 19 · 16:39M. Melisek1.401111103J. Seeman2.758860WSep 19 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83811611113L. Krutina1.8311211682LSep 19 · 14:30J. Seeman3.2511118113M. Melisek1.33291171LSep 19 · 14:00J. Hanacek1.6779111183M. Melisek2.1011116862LSep 17 · 17:09M. Melisek1.80481181E. Ondracek1.9111115113LSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113WSep 17 · 14:30J. Blazek2.20571231M. Melisek1.61111110113
K. Polak10
WSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100LSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102LSep 21 · 14:00P. Fiser1.731111113K. Polak2.004870WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960LAug 9 · 08:33J. Seeman2.2011119133K. Polak1.617811111LAug 9 · 07:30K. Polak1.83531291K. Jirousek1.83111110113LAug 9 · 06:30K. Polak2.1071181192J. Hanacek1.67117117113
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