TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Karel Polak vs Oleh Plyska 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Karel Polak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811711––––
Oleh Plyska
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Plyska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleh Plyska at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Karel Polak 10–13 Oleh Plyska Karel Polak has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Plyska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Plyska
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1360 vs Plyska 1512
Plyska
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 20% vs Plyska 80%
Plyska
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 30% vs Plyska 60%
Plyska
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -2 · Plyska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plyska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plyska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 2.00 / Plyska 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Plyska)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13173226
Polak2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog60% won 33 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back35% 7 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back29% 4 of 14
Plyska1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 90 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it65% 62 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak5wins
AwayPlyska5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak75%3 of 4
AwayPlyska66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak4Plyska6n = 10Plyska took 6 of 10
S2Polak0Plyska10n = 10Plyska took 10 of 10
S3Polak5Plyska4n = 9Polak took 5 of 9
S4Polak5Plyska2n = 7Polak took 5 of 7
S5Polak3Plyska0n = 3Polak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakPlyskaPolak − PlyskaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.141.7−2.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 323 vs 332 / 67349.5%49.3%160 / 323 vs 332 / 673Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlyskaPolak 2.00/Plyska 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Plyska · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plyska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 22 · 15:00K. Polak2510870O. Plyska341211113
WAug 3 · 06:00K. Polak49114914113O. Plyska52911111292
WJul 12 · 08:00K. Polak49871211113O. Plyska43111110562
LJul 11 · 15:45K. Polak32117861O. Plyska4291111113
WJul 10 · 06:30K. Polak4211911113O. Plyska37811991
LJul 7 · 12:00K. Polak193790O. Plyska331111113
WJul 2 · 06:30K. Polak44121011113O. Plyska361012771
LJun 11 · 09:03K. Polak35891171O. Plyska4111118113
WJun 11 · 05:30K. Polak577131412113O. Plyska571115121092
K. Polak10
WSep 22 · 15:30M. Hasman1.8398110K. Polak1.831111133LSep 22 · 14:00K. Polak2.251221091M. Vana1.57101112113LSep 21 · 16:58M. Melisek2.501111113K. Polak1.503890WSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100LSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102LSep 21 · 14:00P. Fiser1.731111113K. Polak2.004870WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960
O. Plyska10
WSep 22 · 13:30M. Hasman1.837290O. Plyska1.831111113WSep 21 · 21:03O. Plyska2.001111113L. Tuma1.737790LSep 21 · 20:00L. Tuma1.80111111113O. Plyska1.91138831WSep 21 · 19:00M. Vana1.9171060O. Plyska1.801112113WSep 21 · 17:30J. Vasek2.2547111162O. Plyska1.57111199113LSep 19 · 12:23O. Plyska2.505890T. Hanke1.501111113LSep 19 · 11:45T. Bertho1.613111011113O. Plyska2.2011912862LSep 19 · 10:45M. Vana1.91611136133O. Plyska1.801171111112WSep 19 · 09:15T. Hanke1.5311101091O. Plyska2.3881212112WSep 14 · 09:04A. Dvoracek2.634111011O. Plyska1.4411812113
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