TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jan Vasek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411711119119611
Oleh Plyska
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Plyska to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vasek above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oleh Plyska at 54.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vasek 2–6 Oleh Plyska Jan Vasek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Plyska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Plyska
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasek 1404 vs Plyska 1466
Plyska
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasek 40% vs Plyska 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasek 50% vs Plyska 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasek -2 · Plyska -3
Plyska
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Plyska) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plyska form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasek 2.25 / Plyska 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Plyska)-1.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166917
Vasek2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 95 days ago (Jun 18) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 6 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Plyska1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 88 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it64% 60 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVasek2wins
AwayPlyska6wins
5 of 8 to a deciderPlyska leads 6–2, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPlyska83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasek2Plyska6n = 8Plyska took 6 of 8
S2Vasek6Plyska2n = 8Vasek took 6 of 8
S3Vasek5Plyska3n = 8Vasek took 5 of 8
S4Vasek1Plyska6n = 7Plyska took 6 of 7
S5Vasek1Plyska4n = 5Plyska took 4 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away450%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricVasekPlyskaV − PBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match41.045.6−4.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasekPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 72 vs 328 / 67138.9%48.9%28 / 72 vs 328 / 671Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlyskaVasek 2.25/Plyska 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.9%
Plyska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Plyska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WMay 21 · 21:09J. Vasek47514114133O. Plyska541112911112
LMay 21 · 20:00J. Vasek34511991O. Plyska3811511113
LApr 17 · 20:27J. Vasek4391111842O. Plyska50119811113
LApr 17 · 18:45J. Vasek166460O. Plyska331111113
LFeb 12 · 19:00J. Vasek4581111962O. Plyska47116811113
WFeb 5 · 18:30J. Vasek46111311113O. Plyska359111321
LFeb 4 · 18:30J. Vasek4012911442O. Plyska491011611113
LJan 16 · 18:30J. Vasek579141110132O. Plyska591112912153
J. Vasek10
WSep 21 · 18:30J. Vasek1.6761111113L. Tuma2.10114791LJun 18 · 20:58J. Vasek2.63361171P. Maly1.4411119113LJun 18 · 20:00P. Maly1.4411119113J. Vasek2.63661181WJun 18 · 19:00L. Tuma2.0071211101J. Vasek1.73111013123WJun 18 · 17:30F. Schmidtmayer1.36111157122J. Vasek3.00971111143LJun 8 · 20:43J. Vasek3.0013128942J. Tichy1.3611101111113WJun 8 · 19:45E. Ondracek2.108350J. Vasek1.671111113WJun 8 · 18:45P. Maly1.2811136772J. Vasek3.502111111113LJun 8 · 17:15J. Tichy1.441111113J. Vasek2.638740LJun 1 · 21:03J. Vasek1.50113851F. Husek2.5071111113
O. Plyska10
LSep 19 · 12:23O. Plyska2.505890T. Hanke1.501111113LSep 19 · 11:45T. Bertho1.613111011113O. Plyska2.2011912862LSep 19 · 10:45M. Vana1.91611136133O. Plyska1.801171111112WSep 19 · 09:15T. Hanke1.5311101091O. Plyska2.3881212112WSep 14 · 09:04A. Dvoracek2.634111011O. Plyska1.4411812113WSep 14 · 07:30J. Mejzlik1.734115111O. Plyska2.0011711133WSep 14 · 07:00O. Plyska1.571111113A. Dvoracek2.256770LSep 14 · 06:00O. Plyska2.10712761M. Vorel1.67111011113LSep 8 · 08:34J. Mejzlik1.801213114113O. Plyska1.91101581192LSep 8 · 07:30O. Plyska1.8381111572J. Mejzlik1.83116711113
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