TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Miroslav Vana
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012611––––
Oleh Plyska
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vana to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiroslav Vana above · Oleh Plyska below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Vana at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vana 19–27 Oleh Plyska Miroslav Vana has won 19 of their 46 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Plyska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-27 in 46
Plyska
Correct
gap of 8 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1496 vs Plyska 1475
Vana
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 60% vs Plyska 40%
Vana
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 50% vs Plyska 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana -1 · Plyska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vana)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plyska form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 1.91 / Plyska 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vana)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166837
Vana1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 33 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Plyska1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 88 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it64% 60 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVana5wins
AwayPlyska5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVana0%0 of 3
AwayPlyska28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana3Plyska7n = 10Plyska took 7 of 10
S2Vana6Plyska4n = 10Vana took 6 of 10
S3Vana3Plyska7n = 10Plyska took 7 of 10
S4Vana5Plyska5n = 10split evenly
S5Vana5Plyska1n = 6Vana took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVanaPlyskaV − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.445.6−2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaPlyskaBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 349 vs 328 / 66852.7%49.1%184 / 349 vs 328 / 668Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanaVana 1.91/Plyska 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vana · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plyska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 19 · 10:45M. Vana49611136133O. Plyska511171111112
LSep 3 · 12:54M. Vana32771171O. Plyska4211119113
LSep 3 · 09:45M. Vana351186101O. Plyska4281111123
WSep 2 · 08:33M. Vana56812913143O. Plyska5511101111122
LSep 2 · 07:30M. Vana4311691162O. Plyska43711113113
LAug 24 · 09:08M. Vana29113781O. Plyska4071111113
WAug 24 · 07:00M. Vana51711715113O. Plyska47116111362
WAug 22 · 16:59M. Vana531311117113O. Plyska4515471182
WJul 18 · 16:38M. Vana43411311143O. Plyska45113118122
M. Vana10
WSep 21 · 19:30J. Vasek2.00851261M. Vana1.73111110113LSep 21 · 18:00M. Vana2.2510870L. Tuma1.571211113WSep 19 · 11:15T. Hanke1.5741090M. Vana2.251112113WSep 19 · 10:45M. Vana1.91611136133O. Plyska1.801171111112LSep 19 · 09:45M. Vana1.83116461T. Bertho1.8361111113WSep 9 · 20:39M. Vana1.50111110113J. Hanacek2.50371281LSep 9 · 20:00J. Mejzlik3.004111311113M. Vana1.36119111382LSep 9 · 19:00J. Hanacek2.50115911113M. Vana1.5081111672WSep 9 · 17:30O. Karpisek2.103111141M. Vana1.6711613113LSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171
O. Plyska10
WSep 21 · 17:30J. Vasek2.2547111162O. Plyska1.57111199113LSep 19 · 12:23O. Plyska2.505890T. Hanke1.501111113LSep 19 · 11:45T. Bertho1.613111011113O. Plyska2.2011912862LSep 19 · 10:45M. Vana1.91611136133O. Plyska1.801171111112WSep 19 · 09:15T. Hanke1.5311101091O. Plyska2.3881212112WSep 14 · 09:04A. Dvoracek2.634111011O. Plyska1.4411812113WSep 14 · 07:30J. Mejzlik1.734115111O. Plyska2.0011711133WSep 14 · 07:00O. Plyska1.571111113A. Dvoracek2.256770LSep 14 · 06:00O. Plyska2.10712761M. Vorel1.67111011113WSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171
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