TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Miroslav Vana
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811711––––
Ladislav Tuma
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeLadislav Tuma to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vana above · Ladislav Tuma below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ladislav Tuma at 64.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vana 2–6 Ladislav Tuma Miroslav Vana has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:45What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Tuma
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vana 1511 vs Tuma 1461
Vana
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vana 60% vs Tuma 20%
Vana
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vana 60% vs Tuma 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vana +2 · Tuma -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVana 2.25 / Tuma 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Tuma)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13166753
Vana2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 33 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Tuma1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 56 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVana2wins
AwayTuma6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderTuma leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVana33.3%1 of 3
AwayTuma80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vana3Tuma5n = 8Tuma took 5 of 8
S2Vana2Tuma6n = 8Tuma took 6 of 8
S3Vana3Tuma5n = 8Tuma took 5 of 8
S4Vana1Tuma3n = 4Tuma took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricVanaTumaV − TBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match32.537.9−5.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVanaTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 348 vs 241 / 47752.9%50.5%184 / 348 vs 241 / 477Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaVana 2.25/Tuma 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJan 26 · 22:05M. Vana30117751L. Tuma3961111113
LJan 26 · 20:00M. Vana236980L. Tuma331111113
LNov 18 · 16:30M. Vana237970L. Tuma331111113
LOct 12 · 18:00M. Vana361111591L. Tuma4381311113
WSep 11 · 16:50M. Vana47411138113L. Tuma47116111182
WSep 11 · 13:45M. Vana331111113L. Tuma226790
LJul 16 · 17:05M. Vana4489111152L. Tuma51111199113
LJul 16 · 16:00M. Vana2458110L. Tuma351111133
M. Vana10
WSep 19 · 11:15T. Hanke1.5741090M. Vana2.251112113WSep 19 · 10:45M. Vana1.91611136133O. Plyska1.801171111112LSep 19 · 09:45M. Vana1.83116461T. Bertho1.8361111113WSep 9 · 20:39M. Vana1.50111110113J. Hanacek2.50371281LSep 9 · 20:00J. Mejzlik3.004111311113M. Vana1.36119111382LSep 9 · 19:00J. Hanacek2.50115911113M. Vana1.5081111672WSep 9 · 17:30O. Karpisek2.103111141M. Vana1.6711613113LSep 3 · 12:54O. Plyska1.8311119113M. Vana1.83771171WSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:45M. Vana1.501112114113J. Hanacek2.5091471192
L. Tuma10
LSep 21 · 18:30J. Vasek1.6761111113L. Tuma2.10114791LSep 20 · 20:15L. Tuma2.10151211022F. Schmidtmayer1.6713101112113LSep 20 · 19:45L. Tuma1.67511851J. Hanacek2.1011811113WSep 20 · 18:15F. Schmidtmayer1.6795111162L. Tuma2.10111193113LSep 20 · 17:45K. Farsky1.531111113L. Tuma2.389590LSep 15 · 17:04M. Soukup1.671111113L. Tuma2.104960WSep 15 · 15:30P. Abraham2.101154111L. Tuma1.6791111133WSep 15 · 15:00L. Tuma1.531111113T. Stejskal2.388960LSep 15 · 14:00L. Tuma1.9141141122M. Soukup1.80115119113WSep 14 · 17:10L. Tuma1.401111113J. Blazek2.755880
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.