TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michael Hasman vs Karel Polak 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Michael Hasman
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9118111113––––
Karel Polak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichael Hasman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichael Hasman above · Karel Polak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 63 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Michael Hasman at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Michael Hasman 0–1 Karel Polak Michael Hasman has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hasman 1437 vs Polak 1360
Hasman
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hasman 40% vs Polak 20%
Hasman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hasman 40% vs Polak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hasman -2 · Polak -3
Polak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hasman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHasman 1.83 / Polak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hasman)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13173359
Hasman1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Polak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHasman0wins
AwayPolak1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPolak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHasmanPolakH − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match43.052.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHasmanPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 126 vs 160 / 32354.8%49.5%69 / 126 vs 160 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HasmanHasman 1.83/Polak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hasman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJun 26 · 07:15M. Hasman43371112102K. Polak521111810123
M. Hasman10
LSep 22 · 14:30M. Hasman2.50113951M. Vana1.5091111113LSep 22 · 13:30M. Hasman1.837290O. Plyska1.831111113WSep 16 · 12:29M. Melisek1.916101111102M. Hasman1.80111268123LSep 16 · 11:30M. Hasman1.80412691M. Melisek1.91111011113WSep 16 · 10:30M. Hasman2.001022811113M. Vorel1.73122011722LSep 16 · 09:30M. Hasman1.5359111172A. Dvoracek2.38111166113LSep 9 · 08:18A. Dvoracek2.7511715113M. Hasman1.409111331WSep 9 · 07:15M. Hasman2.0011411113T. Bertho1.73711971LSep 9 · 06:15M. Hasman1.73691171M. Vorel2.0011116113WSep 9 · 05:15M. Hasman1.501113113A. Dvoracek2.5061170
K. Polak10
LSep 22 · 15:00K. Polak2.0010870O. Plyska1.731211113LSep 22 · 14:00K. Polak2.251221091M. Vana1.57101112113LSep 21 · 16:58M. Melisek2.501111113K. Polak1.503890WSep 21 · 16:00K. Polak1.611114123M. Melisek2.20512100LSep 21 · 14:30E. Ondracek1.83911137123K. Polak1.831181111102LSep 21 · 14:00P. Fiser1.731111113K. Polak2.004870WSep 17 · 16:39K. Polak1.73111111113J. Blazek2.00981381WSep 17 · 16:00M. Melisek1.83111111652K. Polak1.83561311113LSep 17 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.00137157113K. Polak1.731111131152LSep 17 · 13:30J. Blazek2.251111113K. Polak1.579960
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