TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012611––––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11
57 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 1–7 Roman Merkl Ondrej Horak has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Merkl beat Horak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Merkl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 3.00 / Merkl 1.36
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Merkl)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13171591
Horak3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 27 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Merkl1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 50 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it71% 32 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHorak1wins
AwayMerkl7wins
1 of 8 to a deciderMerkl leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMerkl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak2Merkl6n = 8Merkl took 6 of 8
S2Horak2Merkl6n = 8Merkl took 6 of 8
S3Horak1Merkl7n = 8Merkl took 7 of 8
S4Horak1Merkl4n = 5Merkl took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricHorakMerklH − MBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match32.939.0−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 193 vs 265 / 55448.2%47.8%93 / 193 vs 265 / 554Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklHorak 3.00/Merkl 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 21 · 15:15O. Horak2697100R. Merkl341111123
LJan 22 · 17:34O. Horak357117101R. Merkl4211811123
LJan 22 · 16:30O. Horak2659120R. Merkl361111143
WDec 11 · 14:45O. Horak481011511113R. Merkl4312611772
LJul 17 · 13:45O. Horak4081011111R. Merkl4211126133
LJul 11 · 17:05O. Horak35156861R. Merkl46131111113
LJul 11 · 15:00O. Horak239680R. Merkl331111113
LApr 24 · 14:30O. Horak301136101R. Merkl3621111123
O. Horak10
LSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:45O. Horak1.671411981V. Lopata2.1016511113LSep 21 · 13:45O. Horak1.91112861P. Hala1.8071111113WSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:45O. Horak2.00441181J. Juppa1.7311115113WSep 16 · 14:15T. Bertho2.202980O. Horak1.611111113LSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 11 · 17:03P. Hala1.6713760O. Horak2.101511113WSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123WSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420
R. Merkl10
WSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:15R. Merkl2.10111410452P. Hala1.675121211113LSep 21 · 13:15R. Merkl2.2512119532V. Lopata1.571011111113LSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113LSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682WSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132WSep 17 · 13:45R. Merkl2.38111011123V. Lopata1.538128101LSep 14 · 21:08P. Rucky1.5361111123R. Merkl2.381174101WSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113
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