TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811119115––
Tomas Hrstka
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Tomas Hrstka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5
73 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 5–4 Tomas Hrstka Tomas Hrstka has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Hrstka beat Svitac 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrstka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.57 / Hrstka 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13169753
Svitac1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 63 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Hrstka2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 14 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSvitac5wins
AwayHrstka4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSvitac leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac80%4 of 5
AwayHrstka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac5Hrstka4n = 9Svitac took 5 of 9
S2Svitac3Hrstka6n = 9Hrstka took 6 of 9
S3Svitac6Hrstka3n = 9Svitac took 6 of 9
S4Svitac1Hrstka4n = 5Hrstka took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSvitacHrstkaS − HBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match34.835.9−1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacHrstkaBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 395 vs 34 / 7554.2%45.3%214 / 395 vs 34 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.57/Hrstka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 21 · 12:00M. Svitac30911551T. Hrstka4211911113
WAug 10 · 13:13M. Svitac48119116113T. Hrstka4381161172
WAug 10 · 10:00M. Svitac331111113T. Hrstka236890
WJun 10 · 10:15M. Svitac48871111113T. Hrstka4111116942
LJun 1 · 09:30M. Svitac357711101T. Hrstka4311119123
WMay 19 · 09:30M. Svitac351111133T. Hrstka2467110
LMay 14 · 11:15M. Svitac27116371T. Hrstka3851111113
LJan 13 · 12:45M. Svitac224990T. Hrstka331111113
M. Svitac10
LSep 21 · 12:00T. Hrstka2.6311911113M. Svitac1.44911551WSep 21 · 11:00M. Hajek1.57111311632M. Svitac2.251311611113WSep 21 · 09:30Z. Kuksa2.637760M. Svitac1.441111113LSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac1.67911110L. Kolman2.101113133WSep 19 · 20:00L. Kolman2.20710111242M. Svitac1.611112410113LSep 19 · 19:00T. Hucko2.00111011113M. Svitac1.73512951LSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891LSep 18 · 12:50M. Svitac1.911112211132P. Oplt1.80914117153WSep 18 · 11:45P. Oplt1.61811991M. Svitac2.2011611113WSep 18 · 10:45J. Simek2.10761171M. Svitac1.6711115113
T. Hrstka10
WSep 21 · 12:00T. Hrstka2.6311911113M. Svitac1.44911551LSep 21 · 10:30Z. Kuksa2.101181112113T. Hrstka1.6781191432WSep 21 · 10:00M. Hajek1.619111611102T. Hrstka2.20118186123LSep 16 · 12:49T. Hrstka2.5061151372Z. Vasatko1.501181111113WSep 16 · 11:45L. Smazik1.50119791T. Hrstka2.5091111113WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka1.91981151P. Provaznik1.8011117113LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka2.632111341M. Hajek1.44111311113
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