TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Tomas Hrstka
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911115115––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Hrstka above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Matej Svitac at 64.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hrstka 3–5 Matej Svitac Tomas Hrstka has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrstka 1533 vs Svitac 1613
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrstka 60% vs Svitac 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrstka 50% vs Svitac 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrstka -1 · Svitac +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrstka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrstka 2.63 / Svitac 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166356
Hrstka2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 14 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Svitac1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 63 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHrstka3wins
AwaySvitac5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderSvitac leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrstka66.7%2 of 3
AwaySvitac80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrstka3Svitac5n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S2Hrstka6Svitac2n = 8Hrstka took 6 of 8
S3Hrstka2Svitac6n = 8Svitac took 6 of 8
S4Hrstka3Svitac1n = 4Hrstka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricHrstkaSvitacH − SBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match35.035.4−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrstkaSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 74 vs 215 / 39544.6%54.4%33 / 74 vs 215 / 395Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacHrstka 2.63/Svitac 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrstka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 10 · 13:13T. Hrstka4381161172M. Svitac48119116113
LAug 10 · 10:00T. Hrstka236890M. Svitac331111113
LJun 10 · 10:15T. Hrstka4111116942M. Svitac48871111113
WJun 1 · 09:30T. Hrstka4311119123M. Svitac357711101
LMay 19 · 09:30T. Hrstka2467110M. Svitac351111133
WMay 14 · 11:15T. Hrstka3851111113M. Svitac27116371
WJan 13 · 12:45T. Hrstka331111113M. Svitac224990
T. Hrstka10
LSep 21 · 10:30Z. Kuksa2.101181112113T. Hrstka1.6781191432WSep 21 · 10:00M. Hajek1.619111611102T. Hrstka2.20118186123LSep 16 · 12:49T. Hrstka2.5061151372Z. Vasatko1.501181111113WSep 16 · 11:45L. Smazik1.50119791T. Hrstka2.5091111113WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113WSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WAug 14 · 12:38P. Provaznik1.734660T. Hrstka2.001111113LAug 14 · 11:30T. Hrstka1.91981151P. Provaznik1.8011117113LAug 14 · 10:30T. Hrstka2.632111341M. Hajek1.44111311113LAug 14 · 09:30T. Hrstka2.103780L. Kolman1.671111113
M. Svitac10
WSep 21 · 11:00M. Hajek1.57111311632M. Svitac2.251311611113WSep 21 · 09:30Z. Kuksa2.637760M. Svitac1.441111113LSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac1.67911110L. Kolman2.101113133WSep 19 · 20:00L. Kolman2.20710111242M. Svitac1.611112410113LSep 19 · 19:00T. Hucko2.00111011113M. Svitac1.73512951LSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891LSep 18 · 12:50M. Svitac1.911112211132P. Oplt1.80914117153WSep 18 · 11:45P. Oplt1.61811991M. Svitac2.2011611113WSep 18 · 10:45J. Simek2.10761171M. Svitac1.6711115113WSep 18 · 09:15T. Hucko1.91981171M. Svitac1.8011118113
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