TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Niemiec vs Wojciech Urban 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Rafal Niemiec
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117119811811
Wojciech Urban
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Niemiec above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Wojciech Urban at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Niemiec 3–3 Wojciech Urban Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:44What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1400 vs Urban 1306
Niemiec
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 80% vs Urban 20%
Niemiec
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 70% vs Urban 30%
Niemiec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec +2 · Urban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Niemiec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 1.83 / Urban 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Niemiec)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13169651
Niemiec1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Urban1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeNiemiec3wins
AwayUrban3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiemiecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayUrban50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niemiec2Urban4n = 6Urban took 4 of 6
S2Niemiec3Urban3n = 6split evenly
S3Niemiec1Urban5n = 6Urban took 5 of 6
S4Niemiec2Urban2n = 4split evenly
S5Niemiec3Urban1n = 4Niemiec took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricNiemiecUrbanN − UBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match42.044.7−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 268 vs 776 / 164961.2%47.1%164 / 268 vs 776 / 1649Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecNiemiec 1.83/Urban 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec541181311113W. Urban51131111882
WSep 7 · 11:25R. Niemiec44111165113W. Urban4495111182
LAug 11 · 03:55R. Niemiec2459100W. Urban341111123
LAug 10 · 21:55R. Niemiec561111910152W. Urban56971112173
LJul 30 · 05:30R. Niemiec28610120W. Urban371112143
WJul 30 · 24:00R. Niemiec46511811113W. Urban4611611992
R. Niemiec10
WSep 22 · 11:50P. Brozek1.8012611792R. Niemiec1.911011711113WSep 22 · 09:50R. Niemiec1.67611711133M. Skuril2.10115114112WSep 22 · 08:10R. Niemiec1.6111146113P. Przewlocki2.205121191LSep 22 · 06:30O. Jadach1.611111113R. Niemiec2.208570WSep 22 · 05:40M. Skuril1.91861491R. Niemiec1.80111112113WSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec1.911181311113W. Urban1.80131111882WSep 22 · 03:50R. Niemiec2.10117119123P. Brozek1.67611711102LSep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53119911113R. Niemiec2.3871111982LSep 7 · 13:30P. Przewlocki1.7311134113R. Niemiec2.008111191WSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113
W. Urban10
LSep 22 · 09:25O. Jadach1.61111011113W. Urban2.20912971LSep 22 · 07:20W. Urban1.618914111P. Przewlocki2.20111112133LSep 22 · 06:05P. Brozek1.611114113W. Urban2.2061210LSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec1.911181311113W. Urban1.80131111882WSep 22 · 03:25O. Jadach1.805111213112W. Urban1.911181411133LSep 21 · 04:40W. Urban1.852550P. Kurek1.801111113LSep 21 · 03:05P. Adamus1.56111111113W. Urban2.05813471WSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113LSep 21 · 01:30W. Urban1.658112101O. Vincenec1.9111711123LSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113
Upcoming Matches
R. Niemiec
W. Urban
Sep 22 · 13:30W. Urban1.57P. Przewlocki2.25—Sep 22 · 14:40W. Urban2.50P. Brozek1.50—Sep 23 · 03:50W. Urban1.57P. Przewlocki2.25—Sep 23 · 04:30W. Urban2.63K. Slawinski1.44—Sep 23 · 06:05W. Urban2.50S. Szostok1.50—Sep 23 · 06:55W. Urban1.36P. Slosarczyk3.00—Sep 23 · 07:45W. Urban2.00P. Polok1.73—Sep 23 · 09:00W. Urban2.63K. Slawinski1.44—Sep 23 · 10:10W. Urban2.00P. Polok1.73—Sep 23 · 11:50W. Urban1.57P. Przewlocki2.25—
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