Rafal Niemiec vs Piotr Brozek 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Sep 22Finished

Rafal Niemiec

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1167111179111210

Piotr Brozek

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 5

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:35 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%

Graded at full time

Piotr Brozek to win

58.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingRafal Niemiec above · Piotr Brozek below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 95 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Piotr Brozek at 58.6%

95 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 13:35

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Brozek

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Niemiec 1332 vs Brozek 1454

Brozek

Wrong

both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Niemiec 60% vs Brozek 100%

Brozek

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Niemiec 50% vs Brozek 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Niemiec -2 · Brozek +5

Brozek

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Brozek)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Brozek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNiemiec 2.10 / Brozek 1.67

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Brozek)+2.8pp

TT Elite Series · #13169886

Niemiec2.10

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 15 days ago (Sep 07) · back after a break

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog41% won 24 of 59

Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34

Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19

Brozek1.67

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 11) · back after a break

Won last 5

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite59% won 53 of 90

Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29

Up 1–0, closes it82% 40 of 49

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricNiemiecBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime159 / 262 vs 93 / 17060.7%54.7%159 / 262 vs 93 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Brozek

Niemiec 2.10/Brozek 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.6%

Brozek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Niemiec won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

R. Niemiec10