TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111172111012––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
8111172111012––
H2H Wojciech Urban 22–18 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 18 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Vincenec beat Urban 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (54%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-18 in 40
Urban
Wrong
gap of 4 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1352 vs Vincenec 1340
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 40% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Vincenec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +2 · Vincenec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.65 / Vincenec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urban)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13166004
Urban1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 163 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it99% 66 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it74% 118 of 159
Vincenec1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 189 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back23% 65 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVincenec50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban2Vincenec8n = 10Vincenec took 8 of 10
S2Urban5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S3Urban7Vincenec3n = 10Urban took 7 of 10
S4Urban6Vincenec4n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S5Urban3Vincenec3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanVincenecU − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match44.142.5+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime773 / 1639 vs 673 / 147447.2%45.7%773 / 1639 vs 673 / 1474Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.65/Vincenec 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban50111481162O. Vincenec49916112113
WSep 18 · 11:00W. Urban48711811113O. Vincenec4311511882
LSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban39891391O. Vincenec44111111113
LAug 17 · 01:30W. Urban4381141192O. Vincenec44118113113
WAug 16 · 19:30W. Urban4381111133O. Vincenec361177111
WAug 5 · 08:45W. Urban45113119113O. Vincenec4481161182
WJul 23 · 07:10W. Urban529111110113O. Vincenec4711691292
LJul 22 · 08:00W. Urban4598111162O. Vincenec48111169113
LJul 15 · 22:00W. Urban346101171O. Vincenec3911125113
WJul 12 · 04:25W. Urban4291111113O. Vincenec31116861
W. Urban10
WSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113WSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192WSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651LSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060LSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102LSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban1.76111481162O. Vincenec1.95916112113WSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460WSep 20 · 08:45W. Urban1.9311711113W. Pytlas1.77911361WSep 20 · 07:10W. Urban1.8311911113M. Adamus1.83911881LSep 20 · 06:00W. Urban2.6011711692P. Zemla1.41911811113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.881111123O. Vincenec1.6748100LSep 20 · 23:55P. Adamus1.611111115133O. Vincenec2.15139511112WSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:55O. Vincenec1.901110111152P. Kurek1.75812139113WSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113WSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban1.76111481162O. Vincenec1.95916112113LSep 20 · 17:55P. Adamus1.571112113O. Vincenec2.2591090LSep 18 · 14:40J. Pelka2.00141411113O. Vincenec1.7312121381LSep 18 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.3881381492S. Szostok1.5311111112113WSep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.7391090O. Vincenec2.001112113
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