TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145966
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012911––––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 26–28 Oliver Vincenec Lukasz Oracz has won 26 of their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:57What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-28 in 54
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 2 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1266 vs Vincenec 1342
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Vincenec 20%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Vincenec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Vincenec -3
Vincenec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.73 / Vincenec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13145966
Oracz1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 372 of 584
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 354
Vincenec2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 184 of 459
Down 0–1, comes back23% 63 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz50%3 of 6
AwayVincenec50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Vincenec4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz4Vincenec6n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Oracz5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S4Oracz5Vincenec3n = 8Oracz took 5 of 8
S5Oracz1Vincenec2n = 3Vincenec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczVincenecO − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.3−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime835 / 1518 vs 670 / 147555%45.4%835 / 1518 vs 670 / 1475Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.73/Vincenec 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 01:25L. Oracz45511117113O. Vincenec4411791162
LSep 11 · 19:20L. Oracz361187101O. Vincenec4171111123
WAug 27 · 11:25L. Oracz4111811113O. Vincenec34811781
LAug 27 · 05:15L. Oracz4011561172O. Vincenec50811119113
WAug 17 · 03:05L. Oracz4371111143O. Vincenec391197121
WAug 16 · 21:05L. Oracz331111113O. Vincenec237790
LAug 16 · 03:05L. Oracz2671090O. Vincenec341112113
LAug 15 · 21:05L. Oracz37811991O. Vincenec4111811113
WAug 6 · 09:25L. Oracz4312911113O. Vincenec391011991
LAug 6 · 03:25L. Oracz4511771192O. Vincenec48611119113
L. Oracz10
LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113LSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113WSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 13:05J. Pelka2.00146591L. Oracz1.73121111113LSep 18 · 10:35L. Oracz1.9191161172S. Szostok1.80114118113WSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.833650W. Ptak1.831111113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 18 · 14:40J. Pelka2.00141411113O. Vincenec1.7312121381LSep 18 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.3881381492S. Szostok1.5311111112113LSep 18 · 11:00W. Urban1.57711811113O. Vincenec2.2511511882LSep 18 · 09:25K. Hetnar1.4071111113O. Vincenec2.75116421LSep 18 · 08:35P. Adamus1.73111110113O. Vincenec2.00861291WSep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.2561311113S. Szostok1.571111851LSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:25J. Nowak1.73711111092O. Vincenec2.00119812113LSep 17 · 08:00O. Vincenec2.60143751O. Jadach1.39121111113
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Nothing scheduled
O. Vincenec
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