TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13146218
Played Sep 18Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711115811118118
Oliver Vincenec
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Wojciech Urban at 54.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 21–16 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Urban
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1393 vs Vincenec 1338
Urban
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Vincenec 40%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Vincenec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -2 · Vincenec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.57 / Vincenec 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Urban)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13146218
Urban1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 163 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it97% 65 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it74% 118 of 160
Vincenec2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 184 of 459
Down 0–1, comes back23% 63 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban50%2 of 4
AwayVincenec50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Vincenec6n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S2Urban4Vincenec6n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Urban7Vincenec3n = 10Urban took 7 of 10
S4Urban6Vincenec4n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S5Urban2Vincenec3n = 5Vincenec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanVincenecU − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.541.4+2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime764 / 1618 vs 669 / 147347.2%45.4%764 / 1618 vs 669 / 1473Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.57/Vincenec 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 01:30W. Urban4381141192O. Vincenec44118113113
WAug 16 · 19:30W. Urban4381111133O. Vincenec361177111
WAug 5 · 08:45W. Urban45113119113O. Vincenec4481161182
WJul 23 · 07:10W. Urban529111110113O. Vincenec4711691292
LJul 22 · 08:00W. Urban4598111162O. Vincenec48111169113
LJul 15 · 22:00W. Urban346101171O. Vincenec3911125113
WJul 12 · 04:25W. Urban4291111113O. Vincenec31116861
LJul 8 · 02:45W. Urban381113591O. Vincenec4581511113
WJul 2 · 06:45W. Urban4011711113O. Vincenec30811741
LJul 2 · 24:00W. Urban53149121172O. Vincenec501211142113
W. Urban10
LSep 18 · 11:50J. Pelka1.8351111113W. Urban1.83117741LSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 18 · 08:10W. Urban2.258187121S. Szostok1.57111611143WSep 18 · 06:30J. Nowak2.38761581W. Urban1.53111113113WSep 18 · 05:40P. Adamus1.57119118122W. Urban2.25811911143LSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750LSep 16 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.20111213113W. Urban1.616141181LSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113WSep 16 · 12:15I. Szymanski3.50111231162W. Urban1.28814119113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 18 · 09:25K. Hetnar1.4071111113O. Vincenec2.75116421LSep 18 · 08:35P. Adamus1.73111110113O. Vincenec2.00861291WSep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.2561311113S. Szostok1.571111851LSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:25J. Nowak1.73711111092O. Vincenec2.00119812113LSep 17 · 08:00O. Vincenec2.60143751O. Jadach1.39121111113LSep 17 · 06:45O. Vincenec2.655118101J. Pruszkowski1.3911711123LSep 17 · 05:35O. Vincenec2.255690M. Lebek1.521111113WSep 17 · 04:25P. Adamus1.70118119102O. Vincenec1.95711511123
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