TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145841
Played Sep 18Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81118167111214––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:13 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 97 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 63.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 11–29 Sebastian Szostok Wojciech Urban has won 11 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-29 in 40
Szostok
Correct
gap of 18 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1419 vs Szostok 1467
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Szostok 40%
Urban
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Szostok 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +2 · Szostok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 2.25 / Szostok 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Szostok)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13145841
Urban2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 212 of 522
Down 0–1, comes back19% 53 of 286
Down 0–2, comes back6% 11 of 173
Szostok1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 325 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 207 of 260
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban4wins
AwaySzostok6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban50%3 of 6
AwaySzostok75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban6Szostok4n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S2Urban2Szostok8n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S3Urban5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S4Urban6Szostok3n = 9Urban took 6 of 9
S5Urban1Szostok3n = 4Szostok took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanSzostokU − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.343.4−1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime764 / 1616 vs 916 / 157047.3%58.3%764 / 1616 vs 916 / 1570Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokUrban 2.25/Szostok 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 23:55W. Urban409101291S. Szostok44111210113
LAug 30 · 17:55W. Urban388111181S. Szostok4411139113
WAug 10 · 03:55W. Urban51111415113S. Szostok405161361
LAug 9 · 21:55W. Urban46117116112S. Szostok50611911133
LJul 31 · 22:35W. Urban32129110S. Szostok381411133
WJul 31 · 15:00W. Urban491011611113S. Szostok4912811992
WJul 28 · 14:40W. Urban4613118143S. Szostok4211811121
LJul 28 · 06:05W. Urban4011851152S. Szostok47711117113
WJul 13 · 02:45W. Urban4011711113S. Szostok31611771
LJul 12 · 23:05W. Urban4111751172S. Szostok49811118113
W. Urban10
WSep 18 · 06:30J. Nowak2.38761581W. Urban1.53111113113WSep 18 · 05:40P. Adamus1.57119118122W. Urban2.25811911143LSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750LSep 16 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.20111213113W. Urban1.616141181LSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113WSep 16 · 12:15I. Szymanski3.50111231162W. Urban1.28814119113LSep 16 · 11:00K. Adamus1.671113123W. Urban2.10611100WSep 16 · 09:25R. Gajda1.831013891W. Urban1.83121111113LSep 16 · 08:35I. Szymanski3.751191511113W. Urban1.2591117892
S. Szostok10
WSep 18 · 09:00J. Pelka2.5013128101S. Szostok1.50151011123LSep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.2561311113S. Szostok1.571111851WSep 18 · 05:15J. Nowak2.50121110141S. Szostok1.5014512163LSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:00P. Adamus2.2511711113S. Szostok1.57311851WSep 16 · 08:00P. Mecik2.7081190S. Szostok1.411113113WSep 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek3.2081111592S. Szostok1.27116911113WSep 16 · 06:25S. Szostok1.0861111113K. Kowalski5.75119851LSep 16 · 04:50S. Szostok1.7061161182M. Lebek1.95118117113WSep 16 · 04:00M. Paszkiewicz2.4268100S. Szostok1.461111123
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