TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145982
Played Sep 18Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
131512108111012––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 91 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 66.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 10–22 Sebastian Szostok Jerzy Pelka has won 10 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-22 in 32
Szostok
Correct
gap of 12 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1403 vs Szostok 1479
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 80% vs Szostok 60%
Pelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 50% vs Szostok 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +3 · Szostok +1
Pelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.50 / Szostok 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Szostok)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13145982
Pelka2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 81 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Szostok1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 325 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 207 of 260
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka3wins
AwaySzostok7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka50%2 of 4
AwaySzostok83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S2Pelka6Szostok4n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S3Pelka1Szostok9n = 10Szostok took 9 of 10
S4Pelka5Szostok2n = 7Pelka took 5 of 7
S5Pelka1Szostok3n = 4Szostok took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaSzostokP − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.7−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 929 vs 917 / 157146.7%58.4%434 / 929 vs 917 / 1571Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokPelka 2.50/Szostok 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 13:10J. Pelka4591151282S. Szostok471141110113
LAug 20 · 05:30J. Pelka326121041S. Szostok44111012113
LJul 25 · 13:55J. Pelka48111171182S. Szostok50613119113
LJul 25 · 07:55J. Pelka341161251S. Szostok4371114113
WJun 1 · 11:30J. Pelka391117113S. Szostok2871560
LJun 1 · 07:10J. Pelka206860S. Szostok331111113
LApr 9 · 13:55J. Pelka4791191172S. Szostok46116117113
WApr 9 · 07:55J. Pelka3911116113S. Szostok31751181
LJan 29 · 13:45J. Pelka2461170S. Szostok351113113
WJan 29 · 11:20J. Pelka5710111411113S. Szostok5012816682
J. Pelka10
WSep 18 · 07:45J. Nowak1.80541181J. Pelka1.9111119113WSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus1.61871161J. Pelka2.2011116113WSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750WSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780LSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123LSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113
S. Szostok10
WSep 18 · 08:10W. Urban2.258187121S. Szostok1.57111611143LSep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.2561311113S. Szostok1.571111851WSep 18 · 05:15J. Nowak2.50121110141S. Szostok1.5014512163LSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:00P. Adamus2.2511711113S. Szostok1.57311851WSep 16 · 08:00P. Mecik2.7081190S. Szostok1.411113113WSep 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek3.2081111592S. Szostok1.27116911113WSep 16 · 06:25S. Szostok1.0861111113K. Kowalski5.75119851LSep 16 · 04:50S. Szostok1.7061161182M. Lebek1.95118117113WSep 16 · 04:00M. Paszkiewicz2.4268100S. Szostok1.461111123
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