TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13146061
Played Sep 18Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412611511911––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 56.2%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 14–22 Lukasz Oracz Jerzy Pelka has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-22 in 36
Oracz
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1412 vs Oracz 1254
Pelka
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 60% vs Oracz 40%
Pelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 70% vs Oracz 40%
Pelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +1 · Oracz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.00 / Oracz 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oracz)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13146061
Pelka2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 81 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Oracz1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 372 of 584
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 354
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka4wins
AwayOracz6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka50%2 of 4
AwayOracz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Pelka6Oracz4n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S3Pelka5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S4Pelka1Oracz5n = 6Oracz took 5 of 6
S5Pelka2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaOraczP − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.841.3−1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 932 vs 835 / 151946.7%55%435 / 932 vs 835 / 1519Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczPelka 2.00/Oracz 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 15:05J. Pelka41101151142L. Oracz46127115113
LJul 30 · 09:05J. Pelka36119791L. Oracz4181111113
WJul 22 · 23:35J. Pelka331111113L. Oracz199550
LJun 12 · 02:45J. Pelka38911180L. Oracz441113203
LApr 30 · 15:05J. Pelka341011581L. Oracz4112711113
LApr 30 · 09:05J. Pelka38131690L. Oracz441518113
WApr 21 · 13:10J. Pelka512151112113L. Oracz54111391472
WApr 21 · 05:30J. Pelka40411113113L. Oracz3911851142
WApr 9 · 11:55J. Pelka371511113L. Oracz2913790
LApr 9 · 05:55J. Pelka5011816692L. Oracz569111411113
J. Pelka10
WSep 18 · 11:50J. Pelka1.8351111113W. Urban1.83117741LSep 18 · 10:10J. Pelka2.63111181162K. Hetnar1.44813119113LSep 18 · 09:00J. Pelka2.5013128101S. Szostok1.50151011123WSep 18 · 07:45J. Nowak1.80541181J. Pelka1.9111119113WSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus1.61871161J. Pelka2.2011116113WSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750WSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780
L. Oracz10
LSep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.7391090O. Vincenec2.001112113LSep 18 · 10:35L. Oracz1.9191161172S. Szostok1.80114118113WSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.833650W. Ptak1.831111113WSep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.171311113I. Szymanski4.5011870LSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.221195111K. Kowalski4.0081111133LSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.0011651692P. Gumulinski1.737111114113WSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113
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