TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139894
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1189115111113––
Kamil Kowalski
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 79 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 76.6%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 2–4 Kamil Kowalski Lukasz Oracz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:56What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Kowalski
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1269 vs Kowalski 1051
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Kowalski 0%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 30% vs Kowalski 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Kowalski -5
Kowalski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.22 / Kowalski 4.00
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Oracz)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13139894
Oracz1.22
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 372 of 584
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 354
Kowalski4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog15% won 19 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOracz2wins
AwayKowalski4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKowalski leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz66.7%2 of 3
AwayKowalski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Kowalski3n = 6split evenly
S2Oracz2Kowalski4n = 6Kowalski took 4 of 6
S3Oracz4Kowalski2n = 6Oracz took 4 of 6
S4Oracz3Kowalski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricOraczKowalskiO − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.037.8+2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1514 vs 21 / 13855%15.2%833 / 1514 vs 21 / 138Avg sets wonper match2.11.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.132.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.22/Kowalski 4.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.4%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kowalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz361195111K. Kowalski4381111133
LSep 17 · 03:50L. Oracz409111191K. Kowalski3911413113
WAug 6 · 13:30L. Oracz4111811113K. Kowalski27511291
LAug 6 · 07:20L. Oracz4281111842K. Kowalski47119511113
LJul 29 · 13:30L. Oracz4158111162K. Kowalski46111167113
WJul 29 · 07:20L. Oracz4011711113K. Kowalski25711341
L. Oracz10
WSep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.171311113I. Szymanski4.5011870LSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.0011651692P. Gumulinski1.737111114113WSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113LSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113LSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113WSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160
K. Kowalski10
WSep 17 · 12:40P. Kurek1.2071111732K. Kowalski4.33116511113LSep 17 · 11:00K. Kowalski3.251113111152W. Ptak1.33715139113LSep 17 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.25116321I. Szymanski1.3391111113LSep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski5.5089111292P. Gumulinski1.131111510113LSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492LSep 17 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.281111113K. Kowalski3.505780WSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781WSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860LSep 16 · 07:35K. Kowalski4.755580M. Lebek1.141111113
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