TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13143753
Played Sep 17Finished
Kamil Kowalski
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11713151113119511
Wiktor Ptak
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:41 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeWiktor Ptak to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Wiktor Ptak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 106 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Wiktor Ptak at 70.8%
106 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 1–0 Wiktor Ptak Wiktor Ptak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Ptak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 1014 vs Ptak 1317
Ptak
Correct
both rated, 302 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 20% vs Ptak 60%
Ptak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 10% vs Ptak 50%
Ptak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -4 · Ptak +2
Kowalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Ptak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ptak form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 3.25 / Ptak 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Ptak)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13143753
Kowalski3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog15% won 19 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 54
Ptak1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 56 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it83% 47 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKowalski1wins
AwayPtak0wins
Kowalski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKowalskiPtakK − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.031.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiPtakBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 136 vs 79 / 14114.7%56%20 / 136 vs 79 / 141Avg sets wonper match1.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PtakKowalski 3.25/Ptak 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Ptak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ptak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3911611113W. Ptak31511781
K. Kowalski10
WSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.221195111K. Kowalski4.0081111133LSep 17 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.25116321I. Szymanski1.3391111113LSep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski5.5089111292P. Gumulinski1.131111510113LSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492LSep 17 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.281111113K. Kowalski3.505780WSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781WSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860LSep 16 · 07:35K. Kowalski4.755580M. Lebek1.141111113LSep 16 · 06:25S. Szostok1.0861111113K. Kowalski5.75119851
W. Ptak10
WSep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.53811951W. Ptak2.3811711113WSep 17 · 08:35I. Szymanski2.751171241W. Ptak1.4071114113LSep 17 · 07:20W. Ptak2.101199111P. Gumulinski1.6761111133WSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781LSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 2 · 14:20W. Ptak1.61781191O. Vincenec2.2011119113LSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470WSep 2 · 11:50P. Przewlocki2.6371113562W. Ptak1.441181111113LSep 2 · 11:00W. Ptak2.108490K. Adamus1.671111113
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