TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140199
Played Sep 17Finished
Wiktor Ptak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1169119111113––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:06 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWiktor Ptak above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 81 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 58.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Wiktor Ptak 1–2 Piotr Gumulinski Wiktor Ptak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ptak 1302 vs Gumulinski 1489
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ptak 20% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ptak 40% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ptak +1 · Gumulinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Gumulinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPtak 2.10 / Gumulinski 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Gumulinski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13140199
Ptak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 9 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Gumulinski1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 353 of 575
Up 2–0, closes it94% 162 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it77% 241 of 314
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePtak1wins
AwayGumulinski2wins
Gumulinski leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ptak2Gumulinski1n = 3Ptak took 2 of 3
S2Ptak2Gumulinski1n = 3Ptak took 2 of 3
S3Ptak1Gumulinski2n = 3Gumulinski took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPtakGumulinskiP − GBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match34.734.70.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPtakGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 139 vs 1029 / 183255.4%56.2%77 / 139 vs 1029 / 1832Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiPtak 2.10/Gumulinski 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 17 · 07:20W. Ptak401199111P. Gumulinski4161111133
LJul 22 · 14:40W. Ptak31911471P. Gumulinski4211911113
WJul 22 · 06:05W. Ptak331111113P. Gumulinski218490
W. Ptak10
WSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781LSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 2 · 14:20W. Ptak1.61781191O. Vincenec2.2011119113LSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470WSep 2 · 11:50P. Przewlocki2.6371113562W. Ptak1.441181111113LSep 2 · 11:00W. Ptak2.108490K. Adamus1.671111113WSep 2 · 09:50W. Ptak1.5011127113J. Kaczmarek2.508101161LSep 2 · 08:10W. Ptak1.67791191O. Vincenec2.1011119113WSep 2 · 06:30P. Brozek1.73101271162W. Ptak2.001210116113
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski5.5089111292P. Gumulinski1.131111510113LSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113WSep 17 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.507770P. Gumulinski1.171111113WSep 16 · 14:20K. Adamus1.8011661172P. Gumulinski1.91711119113WSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113WSep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.0011880P. Gumulinski1.731311113WSep 16 · 10:35I. Szymanski4.505119111P. Gumulinski1.1711311133WSep 16 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.75771171P. Gumulinski1.4011118113WSep 16 · 08:10K. Adamus2.00121198102P. Gumulinski1.731091111123
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