TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139906
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611711711––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 21–23 Piotr Gumulinski Lukasz Oracz has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:58What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-23 in 44
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1325 vs Gumulinski 1482
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 157 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Gumulinski 100%
Gumulinski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 30% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Gumulinski +5
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gumulinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.91 / Gumulinski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gumulinski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139906
Oracz1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 120 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back21% 34 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 87
Gumulinski1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 346 of 566
Up 2–0, closes it94% 158 of 168
Up 1–0, closes it77% 235 of 307
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwayGumulinski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz60%3 of 5
AwayGumulinski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Oracz5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S4Oracz5Gumulinski2n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5Oracz0Gumulinski4n = 4Gumulinski took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczGumulinskiO − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.5+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime831 / 1507 vs 1029 / 183155.1%56.2%831 / 1507 vs 1029 / 1831Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiOracz 1.91/Gumulinski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 24:45L. Oracz331111113P. Gumulinski217860
WAug 16 · 22:20L. Oracz46111113113P. Gumulinski31661541
LAug 9 · 13:30L. Oracz47109111162P. Gumulinski46121166113
LAug 9 · 07:30L. Oracz49101181372P. Gumulinski541291111113
LAug 5 · 04:00L. Oracz195680P. Gumulinski331111113
WAug 5 · 24:00L. Oracz44111111113P. Gumulinski32841371
LJul 30 · 16:20L. Oracz247980P. Gumulinski331111113
LJul 30 · 06:45L. Oracz4311961162P. Gumulinski48611119113
LJul 29 · 14:20L. Oracz34811961P. Gumulinski4211911113
LJul 29 · 08:10L. Oracz49119116122P. Gumulinski45311611143
L. Oracz10
LSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113WSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160LSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252LSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113LSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113LSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113
P. Gumulinski10
LSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.507770P. Gumulinski1.171111113WSep 16 · 14:20K. Adamus1.8011661172P. Gumulinski1.91711119113WSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113WSep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.0011880P. Gumulinski1.731311113WSep 16 · 10:35I. Szymanski4.505119111P. Gumulinski1.1711311133WSep 16 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.75771171P. Gumulinski1.4011118113WSep 16 · 08:10K. Adamus2.00121198102P. Gumulinski1.731091111123LSep 16 · 07:20W. Urban2.10911811123P. Gumulinski1.67119117102WSep 16 · 05:15R. Gajda2.20611841P. Gumulinski1.6111911113
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Sep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83W. Ptak1.83—Sep 17 · 06:55L. Oracz1.14I. Szymanski5.00—Sep 17 · 07:45L. Oracz1.61P. Kurek2.20—Sep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.00P. Gumulinski1.73—Sep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.67P. Kurek2.10—Sep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.22K. Kowalski4.00—Sep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.14I. Szymanski5.00—Sep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.83W. Ptak1.83—
P. Gumulinski
Sep 17 · 07:20P. Gumulinski1.67W. Ptak2.10—Sep 17 · 08:10P. Gumulinski1.13K. Kowalski5.50—Sep 17 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.73L. Oracz2.00—Sep 17 · 10:35P. Gumulinski1.14I. Szymanski5.00—Sep 17 · 11:25P. Gumulinski1.57P. Kurek2.25—Sep 17 · 13:30P. Gumulinski1.67W. Ptak2.10—Sep 17 · 14:20P. Gumulinski1.13K. Kowalski5.50—
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