TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139855
Played Sep 17Finished
Kamil Kowalski
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1194111311119––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Kowalski above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 76.6%
79 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kowalski 2–2 Lukasz Oracz Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalski 988 vs Oracz 1347
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 359 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalski 0% vs Oracz 40%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalski 10% vs Oracz 30%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalski -5 · Oracz -1
Kowalski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalski 4.00 / Oracz 1.22
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Oracz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13139855
Kowalski4.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog15% won 18 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 52
Oracz1.22
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 374 of 588
Up 2–0, closes it97% 204 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it82% 292 of 355
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKowalski2wins
AwayOracz2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalski2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
S2Kowalski3Oracz1n = 4Kowalski took 3 of 4
S3Kowalski0Oracz4n = 4Oracz took 4 of 4
S4Kowalski1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKowalskiOraczK − OBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.241.0−4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalskiOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 130 vs 831 / 150613.9%55.2%18 / 130 vs 831 / 1506Avg sets wonper match1.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match32.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKowalski 4.00/Oracz 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.6%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kowalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 6 · 13:30K. Kowalski27511291L. Oracz4111811113
WAug 6 · 07:20K. Kowalski47119511113L. Oracz4281111842
WJul 29 · 13:30K. Kowalski46111167113L. Oracz4158111162
LJul 29 · 07:20K. Kowalski25711341L. Oracz4011711113
K. Kowalski10
WSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781LSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860LSep 16 · 07:35K. Kowalski4.755580M. Lebek1.141111113LSep 16 · 06:25S. Szostok1.0861111113K. Kowalski5.75119851LSep 16 · 05:10M. Paszkiewicz1.221011911133K. Kowalski3.75127113112LSep 16 · 03:35P. Mecik1.30111011113K. Kowalski3.10812771WSep 16 · 02:45S. Szostok1.12914861K. Kowalski5.10111211113LSep 16 · 01:35K. Kowalski5.459111151M. Lebek1.0911138113LSep 16 · 24:25M. Tkocz1.1071111123K. Kowalski5.401145101LSep 15 · 23:10P. Polok1.071112113K. Kowalski6.2041070
L. Oracz10
LSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113LSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113WSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160LSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252LSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113LSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113LSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kowalski
Sep 17 · 05:40K. Kowalski3.50I. Szymanski1.28—Sep 17 · 06:30K. Kowalski5.00P. Kurek1.14—Sep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski5.50P. Gumulinski1.13—Sep 17 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.40I. Szymanski1.30—Sep 17 · 11:00K. Kowalski4.90W. Ptak1.12—Sep 17 · 11:50K. Kowalski4.00L. Oracz1.22—Sep 17 · 12:40K. Kowalski5.00P. Kurek1.14—Sep 17 · 14:20K. Kowalski5.50P. Gumulinski1.13—
L. Oracz
Sep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83W. Ptak1.83—Sep 17 · 06:55L. Oracz1.14I. Szymanski5.00—Sep 17 · 07:45L. Oracz1.61P. Kurek2.20—Sep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.00P. Gumulinski1.73—Sep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.61P. Kurek2.20—Sep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.22K. Kowalski4.00—Sep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.14I. Szymanski5.00—Sep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.83W. Ptak1.83—
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