TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139917
Played Sep 17Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117911511––
Wiktor Ptak
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:57 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Wiktor Ptak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 56.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 1–0 Wiktor Ptak Wiktor Ptak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1418 vs Ptak 1309
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Ptak 40%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Ptak 40%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Ptak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.53 / Ptak 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kurek)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139917
Kurek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 213 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it94% 101 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it84% 149 of 178
Ptak2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 9 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKurek1wins
AwayPtak0wins
Kurek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKurekPtakK − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.034.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekPtakBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 822 vs 78 / 14050.5%55.7%415 / 822 vs 78 / 140Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.53/Ptak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ptak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek4112117113W. Ptak341051181
P. Kurek10
WSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492WSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 04:10I. Szymanski4.004730P. Kurek1.221111113WSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:30M. Rus3.405440P. Kurek1.241111113WSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780LSep 16 · 13:10P. Kurek1.65611671M. Sikon2.0511911113
W. Ptak10
WSep 17 · 08:35I. Szymanski2.751171241W. Ptak1.4071114113LSep 17 · 07:20W. Ptak2.101199111P. Gumulinski1.6761111133WSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781LSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 2 · 14:20W. Ptak1.61781191O. Vincenec2.2011119113LSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470WSep 2 · 11:50P. Przewlocki2.6371113562W. Ptak1.441181111113LSep 2 · 11:00W. Ptak2.108490K. Adamus1.671111113WSep 2 · 09:50W. Ptak1.5011127113J. Kaczmarek2.508101161
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