TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140047
Played Sep 17Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711119411811
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 59.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 7–18 Lukasz Oracz Pawel Kurek has won 7 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:27What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-18 in 25
Oracz
Correct
gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1418 vs Oracz 1328
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Oracz 40%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 70% vs Oracz 40%
Kurek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +4 · Oracz +1
Kurek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.10 / Oracz 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Oracz)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13140047
Kurek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 122 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Oracz1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 372 of 584
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 354
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek4wins
AwayOracz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek40%2 of 5
AwayOracz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurek5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurek6Oracz4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S4Kurek2Oracz6n = 8Oracz took 6 of 8
S5Kurek1Oracz2n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekOraczK − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.939.1−3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 822 vs 833 / 151150.5%55.1%415 / 822 vs 833 / 1511Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKurek 2.10/Oracz 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek4111711482L. Oracz48611911113
WSep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek45811114113L. Oracz4311871162
WSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek371411123L. Oracz26124100
LSep 10 · 13:05P. Kurek27114391L. Oracz3741111113
WSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek3961111113L. Oracz27116731
LSep 7 · 01:10P. Kurek133280L. Oracz331111113
LSep 6 · 17:30P. Kurek4361411662L. Oracz501112511113
WSep 1 · 14:45P. Kurek4311611153L. Oracz408118131
LSep 1 · 11:05P. Kurek391211791L. Oracz4514911113
LAug 20 · 11:00P. Kurek32117681L. Oracz4291111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492WSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 04:10I. Szymanski4.004730P. Kurek1.221111113WSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:30M. Rus3.405440P. Kurek1.241111113WSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780LSep 16 · 13:10P. Kurek1.65611671M. Sikon2.0511911113LSep 16 · 12:20B. Madej3.104111111113P. Kurek1.2911913972WSep 16 · 11:05P. Kurek2.2512611113K. Hetnar1.571011771
L. Oracz10
LSep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.0011651692P. Gumulinski1.737111114113WSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113LSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113LSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113WSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160LSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252LSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113
Upcoming Matches
P. Kurek
L. Oracz
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.