TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139933
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1176115111614911
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 16-14
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 21–23 Piotr Gumulinski Lukasz Oracz has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-23 in 44
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1328 vs Gumulinski 1491
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Gumulinski 90%
Gumulinski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Gumulinski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 2.00 / Gumulinski 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Gumulinski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139933
Oracz2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 120 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 87
Gumulinski1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 353 of 575
Up 2–0, closes it94% 162 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it77% 241 of 314
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwayGumulinski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz60%3 of 5
AwayGumulinski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Oracz5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S4Oracz5Gumulinski2n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5Oracz0Gumulinski4n = 4Gumulinski took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczGumulinskiO − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.5+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1511 vs 1029 / 183255.1%56.2%833 / 1511 vs 1029 / 1832Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiOracz 2.00/Gumulinski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 24:45L. Oracz331111113P. Gumulinski217860
WAug 16 · 22:20L. Oracz46111113113P. Gumulinski31661541
LAug 9 · 13:30L. Oracz47109111162P. Gumulinski46121166113
LAug 9 · 07:30L. Oracz49101181372P. Gumulinski541291111113
LAug 5 · 04:00L. Oracz195680P. Gumulinski331111113
WAug 5 · 24:00L. Oracz44111111113P. Gumulinski32841371
LJul 30 · 16:20L. Oracz247980P. Gumulinski331111113
LJul 30 · 06:45L. Oracz4311961162P. Gumulinski48611119113
LJul 29 · 14:20L. Oracz34811961P. Gumulinski4211911113
LJul 29 · 08:10L. Oracz49119116122P. Gumulinski45311611143
L. Oracz10
LSep 18 · 10:35L. Oracz1.9191161172S. Szostok1.80114118113WSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.833650W. Ptak1.831111113WSep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.171311113I. Szymanski4.5011870LSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.221195111K. Kowalski4.0081111133LSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113WSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113LSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 17 · 14:20K. Kowalski4.3313581182P. Gumulinski1.201111116113WSep 17 · 13:30W. Ptak2.20114100P. Gumulinski1.611311123LSep 17 · 11:25P. Kurek2.3831111113P. Gumulinski1.53117761LSep 17 · 10:35I. Szymanski5.00611115133P. Gumulinski1.14118911112WSep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski5.5089111292P. Gumulinski1.131111510113WSep 17 · 07:20W. Ptak2.101199111P. Gumulinski1.6761111133LSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113WSep 17 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.507770P. Gumulinski1.171111113WSep 16 · 14:20K. Adamus1.8011661172P. Gumulinski1.91711119113
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Sep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.73O. Vincenec2.00—Sep 18 · 13:05L. Oracz1.73J. Pelka2.00—Sep 18 · 13:55L. Oracz1.83K. Hetnar1.83—Sep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.61M. Baron2.20—Sep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.00K. Hetnar1.73—Sep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14I. Szymanski5.00—Sep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.63K. Durak1.44—Sep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50J. Kaczmarek2.50—
P. Gumulinski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.