TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139962
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311118117––––
Igor Szymanski
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Igor Szymanski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 61 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 86.8%
61 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 10–3 Igor Szymanski Igor Szymanski has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Szymanski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Oracz
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1269 vs Szymanski 1145
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Szymanski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 30% vs Szymanski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -3 · Szymanski -1
Oracz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 87% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szymanski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.17 / Szymanski 4.50
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13139962
Oracz1.17
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 372 of 584
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 354
Szymanski4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog21% won 78 of 371
Down 0–1, comes back10% 26 of 253
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 182
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwaySzymanski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz87.5%7 of 8
AwaySzymanskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz8Szymanski2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Oracz7Szymanski3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Oracz6Szymanski4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Oracz3Szymanski1n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5Oracz1Szymanski2n = 3Szymanski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczSzymanskiO − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.429.6+6.8per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime833 / 1514 vs 94 / 40955%23%833 / 1514 vs 94 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.11.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.133.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.17/Szymanski 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.8%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:55L. Oracz3611113113I. Szymanski27361171
LAug 29 · 01:25L. Oracz227780I. Szymanski331111113
WAug 28 · 19:20L. Oracz351112123I. Szymanski24410100
WAug 17 · 04:20L. Oracz351311113I. Szymanski1911530
LAug 16 · 18:45L. Oracz48119117102I. Szymanski44311711123
WAug 16 · 04:20L. Oracz331111113I. Szymanski155550
LAug 15 · 18:45L. Oracz4141151472I. Szymanski531181112113
WJul 17 · 12:15L. Oracz331111113I. Szymanski187560
WJul 17 · 08:35L. Oracz351311113I. Szymanski2011540
WJul 2 · 10:35L. Oracz46115811113I. Szymanski4351111792
L. Oracz10
LSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.221195111K. Kowalski4.0081111133LSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.0011651692P. Gumulinski1.737111114113WSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113LSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113LSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113WSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160
I. Szymanski10
LSep 17 · 12:15I. Szymanski3.001411610102W. Ptak1.361281112123WSep 17 · 10:35I. Szymanski5.00611115133P. Gumulinski1.14118911112WSep 17 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.25116321I. Szymanski1.3391111113LSep 17 · 08:35I. Szymanski2.751171241W. Ptak1.4071114113LSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113WSep 17 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.281111113K. Kowalski3.505780LSep 17 · 04:10I. Szymanski4.004730P. Kurek1.221111113LSep 17 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.507770P. Gumulinski1.171111113LSep 16 · 13:55R. Gajda1.20111111113I. Szymanski4.33461351LSep 16 · 13:05P. Przewlocki1.28891114113I. Szymanski3.50111141292
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