TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140113
Played Sep 17Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311117117116––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 67 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 60.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 3–13 Piotr Gumulinski Pawel Kurek has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gumulinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Gumulinski
Wrong
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1418 vs Gumulinski 1487
Gumulinski
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Gumulinski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 70% vs Gumulinski 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Gumulinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.38 / Gumulinski 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Gumulinski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13140113
Kurek2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 122 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Gumulinski1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 353 of 575
Up 2–0, closes it94% 162 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it77% 241 of 314
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek3wins
AwayGumulinski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek50%3 of 6
AwayGumulinski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek6Gumulinski4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S2Kurek3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S3Kurek2Gumulinski8n = 10Gumulinski took 8 of 10
S4Kurek2Gumulinski4n = 6Gumulinski took 4 of 6
S5Kurek2Gumulinski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekGumulinskiK − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.239.1−4.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 824 vs 1029 / 183250.5%56.2%416 / 824 vs 1029 / 1832Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiKurek 2.38/Gumulinski 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek48119116113P. Gumulinski4691191162
LSep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek26711261P. Gumulinski3611311113
WSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek50117911123P. Gumulinski49811119102
LAug 16 · 04:00P. Kurek217860P. Gumulinski331111113
LJul 8 · 09:00P. Kurek237970P. Gumulinski331111113
LJul 8 · 04:30P. Kurek30117841P. Gumulinski4291111113
WJun 30 · 22:10P. Kurek341211113P. Gumulinski2610970
LJun 26 · 21:20P. Kurek2467110P. Gumulinski351111133
LMay 28 · 08:45P. Kurek4111381182P. Gumulinski46711116113
LMay 27 · 21:35P. Kurek4511118962P. Gumulinski45661111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.53811951W. Ptak2.3811711113LSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492WSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 04:10I. Szymanski4.004730P. Kurek1.221111113WSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:30M. Rus3.405440P. Kurek1.241111113WSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780
P. Gumulinski10
LSep 17 · 10:35I. Szymanski5.00611115133P. Gumulinski1.14118911112WSep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.0011651692P. Gumulinski1.737111114113WSep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski5.5089111292P. Gumulinski1.131111510113WSep 17 · 07:20W. Ptak2.101199111P. Gumulinski1.6761111133LSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113WSep 17 · 03:00I. Szymanski4.507770P. Gumulinski1.171111113WSep 16 · 14:20K. Adamus1.8011661172P. Gumulinski1.91711119113WSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113WSep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.0011880P. Gumulinski1.731311113
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