TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140090
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611511––––
Wiktor Ptak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Wiktor Ptak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 47 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 2–3 Wiktor Ptak Lukasz Oracz has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ptak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1279 vs Ptak 1303
Ptak
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Ptak 80%
Ptak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Ptak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Ptak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ptak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ptak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.83 / Ptak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ptak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13140090
Oracz1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Ptak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOracz2wins
AwayPtak3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPtak leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz66.7%2 of 3
AwayPtakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Ptak2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S2Oracz2Ptak3n = 5Ptak took 3 of 5
S3Oracz3Ptak2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S4Oracz1Ptak2n = 3Ptak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricOraczPtakO − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.635.4+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczPtakBasisWin rate · lifetime834 / 1514 vs 80 / 14355.1%55.9%834 / 1514 vs 80 / 143Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PtakOracz 1.83/Ptak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ptak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ptak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz48117119102W. Ptak52911911123
LJun 26 · 15:55L. Oracz2897120W. Ptak361111143
WJun 26 · 09:55L. Oracz331111113W. Ptak196850
WJun 20 · 02:10L. Oracz4111811113W. Ptak29611481
LJun 19 · 20:05L. Oracz389117111W. Ptak4111611133
L. Oracz10
WSep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.171311113I. Szymanski4.5011870LSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.221195111K. Kowalski4.0081111133LSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.0011651692P. Gumulinski1.737111114113WSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113LSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113LSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113
W. Ptak10
LSep 17 · 13:30W. Ptak2.20114100P. Gumulinski1.611311123WSep 17 · 12:15I. Szymanski3.001411610102W. Ptak1.361281112123WSep 17 · 11:00K. Kowalski3.251113111152W. Ptak1.33715139113WSep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.53811951W. Ptak2.3811711113WSep 17 · 08:35I. Szymanski2.751171241W. Ptak1.4071114113LSep 17 · 07:20W. Ptak2.101199111P. Gumulinski1.6761111133WSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781LSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 2 · 14:20W. Ptak1.61781191O. Vincenec2.2011119113
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