TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13146086
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911114611118711
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 54.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 19–20 Sebastian Szostok Lukasz Oracz has won 19 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-20 in 39
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1271 vs Szostok 1471
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Szostok 60%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Szostok 60%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Szostok +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szostok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.91 / Szostok 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szostok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13146086
Oracz1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 120 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 87
Szostok1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 325 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it80% 207 of 260
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwaySzostok5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz71.4%5 of 7
AwaySzostok100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz7Szostok3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Oracz6Szostok4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz2Szostok8n = 10Szostok took 8 of 10
S4Oracz5Szostok3n = 8Oracz took 5 of 8
S5Oracz1Szostok2n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczSzostokO − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.6−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime835 / 1517 vs 918 / 157255%58.4%835 / 1517 vs 918 / 1572Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokOracz 1.91/Szostok 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 01:00L. Oracz33611971S. Szostok3911611113
WAug 14 · 18:55L. Oracz49118117123S. Szostok47611911102
WAug 13 · 13:30L. Oracz4211119113S. Szostok37891191
LAug 13 · 09:05L. Oracz4381441162S. Szostok541112119113
LAug 11 · 22:55L. Oracz4212851162S. Szostok491011116113
LAug 11 · 16:55L. Oracz31116861S. Szostok3741111113
WAug 6 · 11:00L. Oracz331111113S. Szostok238870
WAug 6 · 04:55L. Oracz3611113113S. Szostok36791191
LJul 28 · 13:30L. Oracz311011100S. Szostok371213123
WJul 28 · 07:20L. Oracz4211119113S. Szostok27351181
L. Oracz10
WSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.833650W. Ptak1.831111113WSep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.171311113I. Szymanski4.5011870LSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.221195111K. Kowalski4.0081111133LSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:00L. Oracz2.0011651692P. Gumulinski1.737111114113WSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:55I. Szymanski5.00361171L. Oracz1.1411113113LSep 17 · 06:05L. Oracz1.83117119102W. Ptak1.83911911123LSep 17 · 04:30L. Oracz1.91116771P. Gumulinski1.8071111113
S. Szostok10
WSep 18 · 11:25K. Hetnar1.836790S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 18 · 09:00J. Pelka2.5013128101S. Szostok1.50151011123WSep 18 · 08:10W. Urban2.258187121S. Szostok1.57111611143LSep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.2561311113S. Szostok1.571111851WSep 18 · 05:15J. Nowak2.50121110141S. Szostok1.5014512163LSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:00P. Adamus2.2511711113S. Szostok1.57311851WSep 16 · 08:00P. Mecik2.7081190S. Szostok1.411113113WSep 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek3.2081111592S. Szostok1.27116911113WSep 16 · 06:25S. Szostok1.0861111113K. Kowalski5.75119851
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Sep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.73O. Vincenec2.00—Sep 18 · 13:05L. Oracz1.73J. Pelka2.00—Sep 18 · 13:55L. Oracz1.83K. Hetnar1.83—Sep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.61M. Baron2.20—Sep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.00K. Hetnar1.73—Sep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14I. Szymanski5.00—Sep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.63K. Durak1.44—Sep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50J. Kaczmarek2.50—
S. Szostok
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