TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140094
Played Sep 17Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711116115711311
Kamil Kowalski
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 83.0% is still 83.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
83.0%
83.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 83 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 83.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 7–0 Kamil Kowalski Kamil Kowalski has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Kowalski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1445 vs Kowalski 1054
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 391 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Kowalski 20%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 70% vs Kowalski 30%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +2 · Kowalski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.20 / Kowalski 4.33
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Kurek)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13140094
Kurek1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 213 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it94% 101 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it84% 149 of 178
Kowalski4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog15% won 19 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKurek7wins
AwayKowalski0wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKurek leads 7–0, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek100%3 of 3
AwayKowalski0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek3Kowalski4n = 7Kowalski took 4 of 7
S2Kurek6Kowalski1n = 7Kurek took 6 of 7
S3Kurek6Kowalski1n = 7Kurek took 6 of 7
S4Kurek4Kowalski1n = 5Kurek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKurekKowalskiKurek − KowalskiBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match42.334.9+7.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 825 vs 21 / 13850.6%15.2%417 / 825 vs 21 / 138Avg sets wonper match2.01.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.532.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.20/Kowalski 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.9%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kowalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek538111112113K. Kowalski4911871492
WSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek531111911113K. Kowalski4691311762
WSep 3 · 07:45P. Kurek4181111113K. Kowalski30116761
WAug 12 · 09:00P. Kurek4171112113K. Kowalski351151091
WAug 12 · 05:15P. Kurek4151111143K. Kowalski351166121
WJul 25 · 13:05P. Kurek341111123K. Kowalski2899100
WJul 25 · 06:55P. Kurek331111113K. Kowalski216690
P. Kurek10
WSep 17 · 11:25P. Kurek2.3831111113P. Gumulinski1.53117761WSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.53811951W. Ptak2.3811711113LSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492WSep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25119116113P. Gumulinski1.5791191162WSep 17 · 04:10I. Szymanski4.004730P. Kurek1.221111113WSep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.5712117113W. Ptak2.251051181LSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:30M. Rus3.405440P. Kurek1.241111113
K. Kowalski10
WSep 17 · 11:50L. Oracz1.221195111K. Kowalski4.0081111133LSep 17 · 11:00K. Kowalski3.251113111152W. Ptak1.33715139113LSep 17 · 09:50K. Kowalski3.25116321I. Szymanski1.3391111113LSep 17 · 08:10K. Kowalski5.5089111292P. Gumulinski1.131111510113LSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492LSep 17 · 05:40I. Szymanski1.281111113K. Kowalski3.505780WSep 17 · 04:55K. Kowalski3.7511611113W. Ptak1.25511781WSep 17 · 03:50K. Kowalski4.0011413113L. Oracz1.229111191LSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860LSep 16 · 07:35K. Kowalski4.755580M. Lebek1.141111113
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