TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145972
Played Sep 18Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181113811119611
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Krzysztof Hetnar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 69.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 13–22 Krzysztof Hetnar Jerzy Pelka has won 13 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-22 in 35
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 9 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1409 vs Hetnar 1488
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 80% vs Hetnar 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 60% vs Hetnar 80%
Hetnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka -1 · Hetnar +3
Hetnar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.63 / Hetnar 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Hetnar)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13145972
Pelka2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 81 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Hetnar1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 271 of 395
Up 2–0, closes it98% 149 of 152
Up 1–0, closes it85% 221 of 259
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka6wins
AwayHetnar4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka75%3 of 4
AwayHetnar50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka4Hetnar6n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S2Pelka7Hetnar3n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S3Pelka6Hetnar4n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S4Pelka1Hetnar6n = 7Hetnar took 6 of 7
S5Pelka3Hetnar0n = 3Pelka took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaHetnarP − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.7+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 930 vs 718 / 117146.7%61.3%434 / 930 vs 718 / 1171Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarPelka 2.63/Hetnar 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2451270K. Hetnar361114113
WSep 16 · 05:55J. Pelka331111113K. Hetnar184680
WSep 10 · 14:20J. Pelka331111113K. Hetnar249780
LSep 10 · 06:20J. Pelka31117761K. Hetnar3961111113
WMay 27 · 13:30J. Pelka51711139113K. Hetnar46116111172
LMay 27 · 07:30J. Pelka314111061K. Hetnar4311912113
LMay 21 · 15:55J. Pelka32312981K. Hetnar43111011113
WMay 21 · 09:55J. Pelka45611116113K. Hetnar4311861172
WMay 5 · 11:30J. Pelka4291111113K. Hetnar33116971
WMay 5 · 07:10J. Pelka521110119113K. Hetnar4271281142
J. Pelka10
LSep 18 · 09:00J. Pelka2.5013128101S. Szostok1.50151011123WSep 18 · 07:45J. Nowak1.80541181J. Pelka1.9111119113WSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus1.61871161J. Pelka2.2011116113WSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750WSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780LSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123LSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880
K. Hetnar10
WSep 18 · 09:25K. Hetnar1.4071111113O. Vincenec2.75116421WSep 16 · 17:05M. Rus4.50116981K. Hetnar1.1471111113WSep 16 · 15:55K. Hetnar1.3311411113M. Sikon2.85811561LSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780WSep 16 · 13:30B. Madej3.2510550K. Hetnar1.271211113WSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 11:05P. Kurek2.2512611113K. Hetnar1.571011771WSep 16 · 09:55K. Hetnar1.3311119153M. Sikon2.858611131WSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus4.30811118152K. Hetnar1.16116811173WSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej4.10711481K. Hetnar1.1711711113
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