TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138959
Played Sep 16Finished
Maksymilian Rus
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611911811––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.14
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:26 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
117611911811––
H2H Maksymilian Rus 1–7 Krzysztof Hetnar Maksymilian Rus has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Hetnar beat Rus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (80%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rus 1170 vs Hetnar 1476
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 306 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rus 40% vs Hetnar 60%
Hetnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rus 30% vs Hetnar 60%
Hetnar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rus -2 · Hetnar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (60%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRus 4.50 / Hetnar 1.14
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Hetnar)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13138959
Rus4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 98
Hetnar1.14
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 264 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it98% 146 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it85% 215 of 253
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeRus1wins
AwayHetnar7wins
3 of 8 to a deciderHetnar leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRusn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayHetnar87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rus0Hetnar8n = 8Hetnar took 8 of 8
S2Rus3Hetnar5n = 8Hetnar took 5 of 8
S3Rus4Hetnar4n = 8split evenly
S4Rus1Hetnar4n = 5Hetnar took 4 of 5
S5Rus1Hetnar2n = 3Hetnar took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricRusHetnarR − HBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set08−8of 8Avg pointsper match32.141.6−9.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRusHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 405 vs 722 / 117932.1%61.2%130 / 405 vs 722 / 1179Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarRus 4.50/Hetnar 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.2%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus53811118152K. Hetnar53116811173
LAug 14 · 09:00M. Rus2010370K. Hetnar341211113
LAug 14 · 04:30M. Rus301011451K. Hetnar4312911113
LJun 30 · 11:30M. Rus2261060K. Hetnar341112113
LJun 30 · 07:10M. Rus145720K. Hetnar331111113
LFeb 17 · 14:10M. Rus365101291K. Hetnar44111210113
LFeb 17 · 06:30M. Rus3534111162K. Hetnar45111175113
WDec 18 · 12:05M. Rus47811115123K. Hetnar47116911102
M. Rus10
LSep 16 · 15:30M. Rus3.405440P. Kurek1.241111113LSep 16 · 14:20M. Rus1.9911129752B. Madej1.678101111113WSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:30M. Rus2.601311141172M. Sikon1.41159163113WSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 09:30P. Kurek1.261211113M. Rus3.2510740LSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus4.30811118152K. Hetnar1.16116811173LSep 16 · 07:10M. Rus2.60711115142M. Sikon1.41115911163WSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 17:05M. Rus3.85510100K. Adamus1.191112123
K. Hetnar10
WSep 16 · 15:55K. Hetnar1.3311411113M. Sikon2.85811561LSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780WSep 16 · 13:30B. Madej3.2510550K. Hetnar1.271211113WSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 11:05P. Kurek2.2512611113K. Hetnar1.571011771WSep 16 · 09:55K. Hetnar1.3311119153M. Sikon2.858611131WSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus4.30811118152K. Hetnar1.16116811173WSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej4.10711481K. Hetnar1.1711711113LSep 16 · 05:55J. Pelka2.601111113K. Hetnar1.414680LSep 15 · 14:40M. Baron2.631111113K. Hetnar1.448850
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