TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13152786
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911711––––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:33 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Krzysztof Hetnar below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 58.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 14–12 Krzysztof Hetnar Krzysztof Hetnar has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Oracz beat Hetnar 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1334 vs Hetnar 1420
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Hetnar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Hetnar 60%
Hetnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Hetnar -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 2.00 / Hetnar 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Hetnar)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13152786
Oracz2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 120 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 87
Hetnar1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 271 of 395
Up 2–0, closes it98% 149 of 152
Up 1–0, closes it85% 221 of 259
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwayHetnar5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz80%4 of 5
AwayHetnar80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Hetnar5n = 10split evenly
S2Oracz4Hetnar6n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S3Oracz6Hetnar4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Oracz5Hetnar4n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S5Oracz2Hetnar2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczHetnarO − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.0−0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime839 / 1526 vs 722 / 118055%61.2%839 / 1526 vs 722 / 1180Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarOracz 2.00/Hetnar 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 12:15L. Oracz4689111172K. Hetnar47111159113
LAug 21 · 08:35L. Oracz27641431K. Hetnar45111112113
LJul 3 · 15:05L. Oracz31811481K. Hetnar4011711113
WJul 3 · 09:05L. Oracz49138611113K. Hetnar49111111882
WMay 20 · 11:30L. Oracz4211911113K. Hetnar31811571
WMay 20 · 07:10L. Oracz4471511113K. Hetnar391113781
WApr 30 · 16:40L. Oracz351311113K. Hetnar2411670
LApr 30 · 10:40L. Oracz47711811102K. Hetnar44115115123
WMar 5 · 14:10L. Oracz46114119113K. Hetnar4141181172
LMar 5 · 06:30L. Oracz26117531K. Hetnar4071111113
L. Oracz10
LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113WSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 13:05J. Pelka2.00146591L. Oracz1.73121111113LSep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.7391090O. Vincenec2.001112113LSep 18 · 10:35L. Oracz1.9191161172S. Szostok1.80114118113WSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.833650W. Ptak1.831111113
K. Hetnar10
LSep 18 · 19:40K. Hetnar2.10111110692K. Durak1.67851211113WSep 18 · 18:30K. Hetnar1.1781211113I. Szymanski4.501110151LSep 18 · 17:20K. Hetnar1.5091090M. Baron2.501112113LSep 18 · 15:25K. Hetnar1.25781181J. Kaczmarek3.7511119113LSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 12:40K. Hetnar1.44111211113W. Urban2.631310881LSep 18 · 11:25K. Hetnar1.836790S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 18 · 10:10J. Pelka2.63111181162K. Hetnar1.44813119113WSep 18 · 09:25K. Hetnar1.4071111113O. Vincenec2.75116421WSep 16 · 17:05M. Rus4.50116981K. Hetnar1.1471111113
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