TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13146021
Played Sep 18Finished
Krzysztof Hetnar
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131210118118––
Wojciech Urban
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Hetnar above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 84 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 68.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 11–4 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1481 vs Urban 1377
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 80% vs Urban 40%
Hetnar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 70% vs Urban 40%
Hetnar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar -1 · Urban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Hetnar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 1.44 / Urban 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Hetnar)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13146021
Hetnar1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 271 of 395
Up 2–0, closes it98% 149 of 152
Up 1–0, closes it85% 221 of 259
Urban2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 212 of 522
Down 0–1, comes back19% 53 of 286
Down 0–2, comes back6% 11 of 173
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHetnar7wins
AwayUrban3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHetnar leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar75%6 of 8
AwayUrbann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar8Urban2n = 10Hetnar took 8 of 10
S2Hetnar5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S3Hetnar5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S4Hetnar4Urban4n = 8split evenly
S5Hetnar3Urban2n = 5Hetnar took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHetnarUrbanH − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.438.6+4.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime719 / 1173 vs 765 / 162061.3%47.2%719 / 1173 vs 765 / 1620Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarHetnar 1.44/Urban 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 12:40K. Hetnar46111311113W. Urban36815581
WJul 2 · 06:00K. Hetnar331111113W. Urban228950
WMar 31 · 19:35K. Hetnar4012611113W. Urban391011991
WMar 31 · 06:25K. Hetnar51111478113W. Urban45612111152
LMar 10 · 20:35K. Hetnar239770W. Urban331111113
LFeb 13 · 07:25K. Hetnar521281110112W. Urban501011412133
LFeb 13 · 03:45K. Hetnar51111193172W. Urban55771111193
WJan 29 · 02:10K. Hetnar511110118113W. Urban3441201172
WJan 23 · 03:20K. Hetnar44211911113W. Urban4111711572
WDec 4 · 07:25K. Hetnar43111110113W. Urban31191291
K. Hetnar10
LSep 18 · 11:25K. Hetnar1.836790S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 18 · 10:10J. Pelka2.63111181162K. Hetnar1.44813119113WSep 18 · 09:25K. Hetnar1.4071111113O. Vincenec2.75116421WSep 16 · 17:05M. Rus4.50116981K. Hetnar1.1471111113WSep 16 · 15:55K. Hetnar1.3311411113M. Sikon2.85811561LSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780WSep 16 · 13:30B. Madej3.2510550K. Hetnar1.271211113WSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 11:05P. Kurek2.2512611113K. Hetnar1.571011771WSep 16 · 09:55K. Hetnar1.3311119153M. Sikon2.858611131
W. Urban10
LSep 18 · 11:50J. Pelka1.8351111113W. Urban1.83117741WSep 18 · 11:00W. Urban1.57711811113O. Vincenec2.2511511882LSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 18 · 08:10W. Urban2.258187121S. Szostok1.57111611143WSep 18 · 06:30J. Nowak2.38761581W. Urban1.53111113113WSep 18 · 05:40P. Adamus1.57119118122W. Urban2.25811911143LSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750LSep 16 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.20111213113W. Urban1.616141181LSep 16 · 13:30W. Urban2.208270P. Gumulinski1.611111113
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