TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13152785
Played Sep 18Finished
Krzysztof Hetnar
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012911––––
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:33 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Hetnar above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 62.2%
62 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 28–22 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 22 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hetnar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-22 in 50
Hetnar
Wrong
gap of 6 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1446 vs Baron 1293
Hetnar
Wrong
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 40% vs Baron 20%
Hetnar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 60% vs Baron 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar +1 · Baron -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 1.50 / Baron 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Hetnar)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13152785
Hetnar1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 271 of 395
Up 2–0, closes it98% 149 of 152
Up 1–0, closes it85% 221 of 259
Baron2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 183 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHetnar4wins
AwayBaron6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar80%4 of 5
AwayBaron100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Hetnar6Baron4n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S3Hetnar2Baron8n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S4Hetnar4Baron2n = 6Hetnar took 4 of 6
S5Hetnar1Baron2n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHetnarBaronH − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.536.50.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime721 / 1177 vs 866 / 181161.3%47.8%721 / 1177 vs 866 / 1811Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarHetnar 1.50/Baron 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 14:40K. Hetnar218850M. Baron331111113
WSep 15 · 06:05K. Hetnar331111113M. Baron185850
LAug 24 · 09:50K. Hetnar2681260M. Baron361114113
LAug 24 · 05:40K. Hetnar391191181M. Baron4381113113
LAug 21 · 09:25K. Hetnar30611761M. Baron4011711113
WAug 21 · 03:25K. Hetnar48114913113M. Baron44711111142
WAug 7 · 10:35K. Hetnar331111113M. Baron187830
WAug 7 · 03:00K. Hetnar4111118113M. Baron30771151
LJun 3 · 15:10K. Hetnar49811812102M. Baron511171110123
LMar 12 · 14:55K. Hetnar4591261172M. Baron521110119113
K. Hetnar10
WSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113LSep 18 · 15:25K. Hetnar1.25781181J. Kaczmarek3.7511119113LSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 12:40K. Hetnar1.44111211113W. Urban2.631310881LSep 18 · 11:25K. Hetnar1.836790S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 18 · 10:10J. Pelka2.63111181162K. Hetnar1.44813119113WSep 18 · 09:25K. Hetnar1.4071111113O. Vincenec2.75116421WSep 16 · 17:05M. Rus4.50116981K. Hetnar1.1471111113WSep 16 · 15:55K. Hetnar1.3311411113M. Sikon2.85811561LSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780
M. Baron10
LSep 18 · 16:35K. Durak1.361210911113M. Baron3.00101211642WSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113LSep 17 · 16:40K. Slawinski1.391111113M. Baron2.606570LSep 17 · 15:55O. Sokolowski1.90961212113M. Baron1.811111101082LSep 17 · 13:55W. Glanowski2.059111011113M. Baron1.6511612392WSep 17 · 13:10K. Schaniel1.8058131342M. Baron1.8311111111113LSep 17 · 11:30W. Buczynski2.151111614113M. Baron1.6046111672WSep 17 · 10:40K. Slawinski1.39181191M. Baron2.6011117113WSep 17 · 09:55O. Sokolowski1.9051070M. Baron1.801112113WSep 17 · 07:55W. Glanowski2.17910111192M. Baron1.56111258113
Upcoming Matches
K. Hetnar
M. Baron
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.