TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13144870
Played Sep 17Finished
Kacper Slawinski
Home
1.39
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115117––––
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.60
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
116115117––––
H2H Kacper Slawinski 20–11 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Baron beat Slawinski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (65%)
Slawinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Slawinski
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slawinski 1467 vs Baron 1290
Slawinski
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slawinski 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slawinski 50% vs Baron 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slawinski +1 · Baron -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Slawinski) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (72%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlawinski 1.39 / Baron 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Slawinski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13144870
Slawinski1.39
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 121 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it98% 56 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it82% 88 of 107
Baron2.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 183 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlawinski7wins
AwayBaron3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlawinski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlawinski100%5 of 5
AwayBaron60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slawinski5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Slawinski3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Slawinski8Baron2n = 10Slawinski took 8 of 10
S4Slawinski5Baron3n = 8Slawinski took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlawinskiBaronS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.2+1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlawinskiBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime627 / 1014 vs 869 / 181461.8%47.9%627 / 1014 vs 869 / 1814Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiSlawinski 1.39/Baron 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.4%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Slawinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 10:40K. Slawinski29181191M. Baron4011117113
WSep 15 · 09:00K. Slawinski4411811143M. Baron355117121
LSep 15 · 04:30K. Slawinski2912980M. Baron361411113
WSep 8 · 12:45K. Slawinski44111011123M. Baron359124101
LSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski33871171M. Baron4111118113
WSep 1 · 11:25K. Slawinski4061111123M. Baron351186101
WSep 1 · 05:15K. Slawinski4311911123M. Baron388119101
WAug 28 · 16:40K. Slawinski331111113M. Baron216780
WAug 28 · 10:40K. Slawinski51119812113M. Baron46811111062
WAug 18 · 13:10K. Slawinski42811111113M. Baron4511971172
K. Slawinski10
WSep 17 · 15:05W. Glanowski2.97611361K. Slawinski1.3511511113LSep 17 · 14:20W. Buczynski3.3011118113K. Slawinski1.27961161WSep 17 · 13:30K. Slawinski1.371111113O. Sokolowski2.703880LSep 17 · 12:20K. Slawinski1.555111111112K. Schaniel2.25115139133LSep 17 · 10:40K. Slawinski1.39181191M. Baron2.6011117113WSep 17 · 09:05W. Glanowski3.3071190K. Slawinski1.251113113WSep 17 · 08:20K. Schaniel2.25911481K. Slawinski1.5511711113LSep 17 · 07:30K. Slawinski1.4611511782O. Sokolowski2.55611211113LSep 17 · 06:20K. Slawinski1.289890W. Buczynski3.151111113WSep 15 · 14:20P. Przewlocki2.009660K. Slawinski1.731111113
M. Baron10
LSep 17 · 15:55O. Sokolowski1.90961212113M. Baron1.811111101082LSep 17 · 13:55W. Glanowski2.059111011113M. Baron1.6511612392WSep 17 · 13:10K. Schaniel1.8058131342M. Baron1.8311111111113LSep 17 · 11:30W. Buczynski2.151111614113M. Baron1.6046111672WSep 17 · 10:40K. Slawinski1.39181191M. Baron2.6011117113WSep 17 · 09:55O. Sokolowski1.9051070M. Baron1.801112113WSep 17 · 07:55W. Glanowski2.17910111192M. Baron1.56111258113LSep 17 · 07:10W. Buczynski2.16713615113M. Baron1.571111111392LSep 17 · 05:30K. Schaniel1.801011124113M. Baron1.83126101152WSep 15 · 14:40M. Baron2.631111113K. Hetnar1.448850
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