TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13140098
Played Sep 17Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121161210411115
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
10121161210411115
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 146–100 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 100 of their 246 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (50%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
146-100 in 246
Schaniel
Correct
gap of 46 in 246, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1374 vs Baron 1277
Schaniel
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 80% vs Baron 20%
Schaniel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +1 · Baron +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.80 / Baron 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schaniel)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13140098
Schaniel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 202 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it77% 153 of 199
Baron1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 183 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel7wins
AwayBaron3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel80%4 of 5
AwayBaron40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Schaniel7Baron3n = 10Schaniel took 7 of 10
S3Schaniel5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Schaniel5Baron4n = 9Schaniel took 5 of 9
S5Schaniel4Baron2n = 6Schaniel took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielBaronS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.942.8+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime875 / 1758 vs 865 / 180549.8%47.9%875 / 1758 vs 865 / 1805Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.80/Baron 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 12:40K. Schaniel551311611143M. Baron51159114122
LJul 22 · 06:30K. Schaniel387119111M. Baron4211711133
WJul 10 · 22:10K. Schaniel51911911113M. Baron4311911662
LJul 10 · 19:40K. Schaniel43113811102M. Baron48511119123
WJul 8 · 02:35K. Schaniel47121211123M. Baron3910145101
WJul 7 · 18:10K. Schaniel521112414113M. Baron52710111682
WJul 7 · 03:30K. Schaniel4391112113M. Baron361181071
WJul 6 · 21:30K. Schaniel44114117113M. Baron4351181182
WJun 30 · 04:20K. Schaniel371111153M. Baron2786130
LJun 29 · 18:45K. Schaniel49911117112M. Baron47115711133
K. Schaniel10
WSep 16 · 02:10K. Schaniel2.001111113G. Jurowicz1.735690LSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152WSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.6111121110102K. Schaniel2.20414912123WSep 15 · 22:55K. Schaniel2.7571112113J. Pruszkowski1.401151071WSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561LSep 15 · 20:05K. Schaniel1.6111116672G. Jurowicz2.20751111113LSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961LSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113LSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113
M. Baron10
WSep 15 · 14:40M. Baron2.631111113K. Hetnar1.448850LSep 15 · 13:05M. Baron1.83116111192P. Gumulinski1.83711139113LSep 15 · 11:50M. Baron2.20121381082P. Przewlocki1.6110111112113LSep 15 · 10:10M. Baron1.8311714992M. Sikon1.837111211113LSep 15 · 09:00M. Baron3.005117121K. Slawinski1.3611811143WSep 15 · 07:45M. Sikon1.83146111272M. Baron1.831611710113LSep 15 · 06:55P. Gumulinski1.83139426133M. Baron1.8311111124112LSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron2.505850K. Hetnar1.501111113WSep 15 · 04:30M. Baron2.631411113K. Slawinski1.4412980WSep 15 · 03:50P. Przewlocki1.831212591M. Baron1.83141011113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Baron
Sep 17 · 07:10M. Baron1.57W. Buczynski2.16—Sep 17 · 07:55M. Baron1.56W. Glanowski2.17—Sep 17 · 09:55M. Baron1.74O. Sokolowski1.90—Sep 17 · 10:40M. Baron2.60K. Slawinski1.39—Sep 17 · 11:30M. Baron1.57W. Buczynski2.16—Sep 17 · 13:10M. Baron1.83K. Schaniel1.80—Sep 17 · 13:55M. Baron1.56W. Glanowski2.17—Sep 17 · 15:55M. Baron1.74O. Sokolowski1.90—Sep 17 · 16:40M. Baron2.60K. Slawinski1.39—
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