TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13144406
Played Sep 17Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51181113111311411
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:22 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
51181113111311411
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 149–102 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 102 of their 251 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (50%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
149-102 in 251
Schaniel
Wrong
gap of 47 in 251, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1374 vs Baron 1299
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 40% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 60% vs Baron 40%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +2 · Baron -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.80 / Baron 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schaniel)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13144406
Schaniel1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 202 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it77% 153 of 199
Baron1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 183 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel6wins
AwayBaron4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel60%3 of 5
AwayBaron40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Schaniel5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S3Schaniel3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S4Schaniel6Baron4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S5Schaniel5Baron2n = 7Schaniel took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielBaronS − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.245.0−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime875 / 1751 vs 868 / 181150%47.9%875 / 1751 vs 868 / 1811Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.80/Baron 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 05:30K. Schaniel481011124113M. Baron44126101152
LSep 4 · 21:20K. Schaniel4361261182M. Baron501110117113
WSep 4 · 15:25K. Schaniel531112811113M. Baron4991411872
LAug 10 · 04:20K. Schaniel24119311M. Baron4291111113
WAug 9 · 18:45K. Schaniel40112115113M. Baron4251161192
WJul 22 · 12:40K. Schaniel551311611143M. Baron51159114122
LJul 22 · 06:30K. Schaniel387119111M. Baron4211711133
WJul 10 · 22:10K. Schaniel51911911113M. Baron4311911662
LJul 10 · 19:40K. Schaniel43113811102M. Baron48511119123
WJul 8 · 02:35K. Schaniel47121211123M. Baron3910145101
K. Schaniel10
WSep 17 · 12:20K. Slawinski1.555111111112K. Schaniel2.25115139133WSep 17 · 11:05K. Schaniel1.7511115133O. Sokolowski1.893111111LSep 17 · 09:30K. Schaniel1.6811811962W. Buczynski2.05511311113LSep 17 · 08:20K. Schaniel2.25911481K. Slawinski1.5511711113LSep 17 · 06:45K. Schaniel1.57119891W. Glanowski2.1581111113WSep 17 · 05:30K. Schaniel1.801011124113M. Baron1.83126101152WSep 16 · 02:10K. Schaniel2.001111113G. Jurowicz1.735690LSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152WSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.6111121110102K. Schaniel2.20414912123WSep 15 · 22:55K. Schaniel2.7571112113J. Pruszkowski1.401151071
M. Baron10
LSep 17 · 13:55W. Glanowski2.059111011113M. Baron1.6511612392LSep 17 · 11:30W. Buczynski2.151111614113M. Baron1.6046111672WSep 17 · 10:40K. Slawinski1.39181191M. Baron2.6011117113WSep 17 · 09:55O. Sokolowski1.9051070M. Baron1.801112113WSep 17 · 07:55W. Glanowski2.17910111192M. Baron1.56111258113LSep 17 · 07:10W. Buczynski2.16713615113M. Baron1.571111111392LSep 17 · 05:30K. Schaniel1.801011124113M. Baron1.83126101152WSep 15 · 14:40M. Baron2.631111113K. Hetnar1.448850LSep 15 · 13:05M. Baron1.83116111192P. Gumulinski1.83711139113LSep 15 · 11:50M. Baron2.20121381082P. Przewlocki1.6110111112113
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