TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13148594
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111012116811––
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 29–21 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 21 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-21 in 50
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 8 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1305 vs Baron 1282
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Baron 20%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Baron -3
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.61 / Baron 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Oracz)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13148594
Oracz1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 372 of 584
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 354
Baron2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 183 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwayBaron3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz83.3%5 of 6
AwayBaron50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Baron4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz8Baron2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S3Oracz8Baron2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Oracz3Baron3n = 6split evenly
S5Oracz1Baron2n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczBaronO − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.835.3+3.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime837 / 1521 vs 865 / 181055%47.8%837 / 1521 vs 865 / 1810Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.61/Baron 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 04:20L. Oracz331111113M. Baron229580
LSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz4512125882M. Baron5310101111113
LAug 25 · 09:50L. Oracz42511111142M. Baron48111376113
WAug 25 · 05:40L. Oracz3611113113M. Baron28661151
WAug 21 · 13:55L. Oracz331111113M. Baron238870
WAug 21 · 04:10L. Oracz331111113M. Baron215790
LAug 17 · 01:55L. Oracz29671151M. Baron4011117113
WAug 16 · 19:55L. Oracz52141611113M. Baron431614671
WAug 14 · 22:35L. Oracz51611167113M. Baron52118141182
WAug 14 · 15:00L. Oracz341111123M. Baron2367100
L. Oracz10
LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113WSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:15L. Oracz2.006970K. Hetnar1.731111113WSep 18 · 13:55K. Hetnar1.83111111652L. Oracz1.83813911113WSep 18 · 13:05J. Pelka2.00146591L. Oracz1.73121111113LSep 18 · 12:15L. Oracz1.7391090O. Vincenec2.001112113LSep 18 · 10:35L. Oracz1.9191161172S. Szostok1.80114118113WSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban2.20611125112L. Oracz1.611181011133LSep 17 · 14:40L. Oracz1.833650W. Ptak1.831111113
M. Baron10
LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102LSep 19 · 01:25R. Szymik1.571111113M. Baron2.255690LSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak2.001311118113M. Baron1.7315951182WSep 18 · 22:35A. Szurgot3.75811961M. Baron1.2511211113LSep 18 · 21:00K. Durak1.361110911113M. Baron2.8581211372WSep 18 · 20:05I. Szymanski2.639490M. Baron1.441111113WSep 18 · 19:20J. Kaczmarek1.6751191352M. Baron2.101191111113WSep 18 · 17:20K. Hetnar1.5091090M. Baron2.501112113LSep 18 · 16:35K. Durak1.361210911113M. Baron3.00101211642LSep 17 · 16:40K. Slawinski1.391111113M. Baron2.606570
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron
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