TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.78
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111115117611119
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.93
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
111115117611119
H2H Wojciech Urban 50–52 Mariusz Baron Wojciech Urban has won 50 of their 102 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Baron beat Urban 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-52 in 102
Baron
Wrong
gap of 2 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1343 vs Baron 1286
Urban
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Baron 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +1 · Baron -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.78 / Baron 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urban)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13166010
Urban1.78
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 163 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it99% 66 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it74% 118 of 159
Baron1.93
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 185 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 249
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban4wins
AwayBaron6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban75%3 of 4
AwayBaron83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S2Urban3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Urban6Baron4n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S4Urban3Baron5n = 8Baron took 5 of 8
S5Urban2Baron1n = 3Urban took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanBaronU − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.640.3−4.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime772 / 1638 vs 870 / 181747.1%47.9%772 / 1638 vs 870 / 1817Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.78/Baron 1.93
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 20:20W. Urban41116113102M. Baron50711911123
LAug 20 · 05:10W. Urban355811111M. Baron4011115133
WAug 19 · 23:10W. Urban46411412153M. Baron541191110132
LAug 17 · 03:55W. Urban25312551M. Baron43111011113
WAug 16 · 21:55W. Urban521113611113M. Baron4641511882
LAug 9 · 23:55W. Urban346711101M. Baron3911115123
LAug 9 · 17:55W. Urban27551161M. Baron4111118113
WAug 6 · 02:45W. Urban351113113M. Baron2231180
WAug 2 · 23:55W. Urban44111111113M. Baron35913581
LAug 2 · 17:55W. Urban175480M. Baron331111113
W. Urban10
WSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651LSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060LSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102LSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban1.76111481162O. Vincenec1.95916112113WSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460WSep 20 · 08:45W. Urban1.9311711113W. Pytlas1.77911361WSep 20 · 07:10W. Urban1.8311911113M. Adamus1.83911881LSep 20 · 06:00W. Urban2.6011711692P. Zemla1.41911811113LSep 20 · 04:25W. Urban1.95119881K. Juszczyk1.7491111113LSep 20 · 03:10W. Urban1.908370M. Paszkiewicz1.801111113
M. Baron10
WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560LSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113WSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102WSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762LSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102LSep 19 · 01:25R. Szymik1.571111113M. Baron2.255690LSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak2.001311118113M. Baron1.7315951182WSep 18 · 22:35A. Szurgot3.75811961M. Baron1.2511211113
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