TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
––––––––––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
H2H Wojciech Urban 24–20 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-20 in 44
Urban
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1329 vs Adamus 1364
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 40% vs Adamus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 30% vs Adamus 50%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -3 · Adamus -1
Urban
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.83 / Adamus 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13161303
Urban1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Adamus1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban100%4 of 4
AwayAdamus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Adamus5n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S2Urban5Adamus4n = 9Urban took 5 of 9
S3Urban5Adamus4n = 9Urban took 5 of 9
S4Urban3Adamus3n = 6split evenly
S5Urban3Adamus1n = 4Urban took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanAdamusU − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.736.7+2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime769 / 1632 vs 803 / 163547.1%49.1%769 / 1632 vs 803 / 1635Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusUrban 1.83/Adamus 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 13:55W. Urban47111177113M. Adamus4167111162
WAug 31 · 23:50W. Urban3711114113M. Adamus33691171
WAug 31 · 17:55W. Urban331111113M. Adamus248970
LAug 30 · 07:35W. Urban237970M. Adamus331111113
LAug 28 · 04:50W. Urban2679100M. Adamus341111123
WAug 22 · 08:00W. Urban541291111113M. Adamus4514115962
LAug 17 · 19:30W. Urban4271111582M. Adamus47115911113
WAug 12 · 04:00W. Urban48711118113M. Adamus4011581152
WJul 30 · 03:50W. Urban3811511113M. Adamus33911581
W. Urban10
LSep 20 · 06:00W. Urban2.6011711692P. Zemla1.41911811113LSep 20 · 04:25W. Urban1.95119881K. Juszczyk1.7491111113LSep 20 · 03:10W. Urban1.908370M. Paszkiewicz1.801111113WSep 19 · 08:45W. Urban2.001111113W. Pytlas1.713750WSep 19 · 07:10W. Urban1.6812145113T. Lojtek2.0510121181LSep 19 · 06:00W. Urban1.30431181M. Cesarz3.1511113113LSep 19 · 04:25W. Urban1.83117991J. Pelka1.8381111113LSep 19 · 03:10W. Urban1.66158871J. Kaczmarek2.10131111113WSep 18 · 14:20W. Urban2.251111113S. Szostok1.574980LSep 18 · 12:40K. Hetnar1.44111211113W. Urban2.631310881
M. Adamus10
LSep 20 · 06:25M. Adamus1.91910100W. Pytlas1.801112123WSep 20 · 04:50M. Adamus1.78811111143M. Paszkiewicz1.91111155122LSep 20 · 04:00P. Zemla1.4111128113M. Adamus2.604101131WSep 19 · 10:20M. Adamus1.78311811113R. Wojcik1.9111711952LSep 19 · 09:05M. Adamus1.78891231J. Badura1.93111110113LSep 19 · 07:55M. Adamus1.50612711102O. Sokolowski2.401110116123LSep 19 · 06:45S. Sojka1.851113113M. Adamus1.8081190WSep 19 · 05:55M. Adamus1.5011123113P. Slosarczyk2.158101191WSep 18 · 08:20M. Adamus1.90137511123Y. Fomin1.801111119102WSep 18 · 06:45P. Kurek1.80871141M. Adamus1.9011119113
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