TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13148333
Played Sep 18Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711119411––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
811711119411––
H2H Pawel Kurek 16–13 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1395 vs Adamus 1425
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 40% vs Adamus 20%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 50% vs Adamus 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -2 · Adamus -4
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.80 / Adamus 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13148333
Kurek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 213 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it94% 101 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it84% 149 of 178
Adamus1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 172 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 45 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek100%5 of 5
AwayAdamus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurek3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S3Kurek7Adamus3n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Kurek3Adamus3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekAdamusK − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.736.1+1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 831 vs 803 / 163650.4%49.1%419 / 831 vs 803 / 1636Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusKurek 1.80/Adamus 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 06:45P. Kurek30871141M. Adamus4211119113
WAug 30 · 03:10P. Kurek341112113M. Adamus2071030
LAug 28 · 06:25P. Kurek2010550M. Adamus341211113
WAug 25 · 05:55P. Kurek50871113113M. Adamus49111191172
WAug 8 · 24:10P. Kurek341211113M. Adamus2310940
WAug 7 · 16:55P. Kurek47121311113M. Adamus401015691
WJul 29 · 01:45P. Kurek50111711113M. Adamus40919751
LJul 28 · 16:15P. Kurek2697100M. Adamus341111123
WJun 30 · 05:35P. Kurek47117117113M. Adamus3761161132
LJun 11 · 06:25P. Kurek399111091M. Adamus4211812113
P. Kurek10
LSep 18 · 05:35P. Kurek1.668970Y. Fomin2.001111113LSep 18 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.5511118113P. Kurek1.45331171WSep 18 · 03:35P. Kurek2.1511611113P. Polok1.60811591WSep 17 · 13:55P. Kurek1.1711811113I. Szymanski4.50811621LSep 17 · 12:40P. Kurek1.2071111732K. Kowalski4.33116511113WSep 17 · 11:25P. Kurek2.3831111113P. Gumulinski1.53117761WSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.53811951W. Ptak2.3811711113LSep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.1011711482L. Oracz1.67611911113WSep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.148111112113K. Kowalski5.0011871492
M. Adamus10
LSep 18 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.351181110123M. Adamus1.52511812102LSep 18 · 05:10M. Adamus2.4091290P. Polok1.511114113LSep 18 · 04:00M. Adamus2.25911571M. Lebek1.5511811113LSep 18 · 02:20M. Adamus2.45661161M. Tkocz1.4411118113WSep 18 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.52111197102M. Adamus2.30981111123WSep 18 · 24:00M. Lebek1.65811891M. Adamus2.1011811113WSep 17 · 23:10M. Adamus2.3513124113P. Polok1.5011101161LSep 17 · 22:00M. Adamus1.57611861G. Jurowicz2.1511811113WSep 16 · 20:45O. Sokolowski1.855911121M. Adamus1.8011118143LSep 16 · 19:35M. Adamus1.53811891J. Kaczmarek2.2311811113
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