TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113116511911911
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:53 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
113116511911911
H2H Mariusz Baron 102–103 Grzegorz Marud Mariusz Baron has won 102 of their 205 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
102-103 in 205
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1304 vs Marud 1424
Marud
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 40% vs Marud 20%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Marud 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +2 · Marud -4
Marud
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Marud)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.95 / Marud 1.70
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Marud)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13163740
Baron1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 185 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 249
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Marud1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 130 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it71% 105 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayMarud5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaronn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMarud50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron2Marud8n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S2Baron7Marud3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Baron5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S4Baron4Marud4n = 8split evenly
S5Baron3Marud3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronMarudB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.3−0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime870 / 1815 vs 648 / 136747.9%47.4%870 / 1815 vs 648 / 1367Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudBaron 1.95/Marud 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron235990G. Marud331111113
WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron3951211113G. Marud301110541
LAug 3 · 03:05M. Baron45111151172G. Marud44541113113
LAug 2 · 21:05M. Baron4779111192G. Marud49111179113
WJul 20 · 03:05M. Baron44411117113G. Marud3711391132
LJul 19 · 21:05M. Baron4371211852G. Marud491110611113
WJul 13 · 03:05M. Baron47411118133G. Marud47119511112
LJul 12 · 21:05M. Baron29108110G. Marud361211133
WJul 7 · 01:50M. Baron55711411223G. Marud58117119202
WJul 6 · 18:20M. Baron4011117113G. Marud30461191
M. Baron10
WSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102WSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762LSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102LSep 19 · 01:25R. Szymik1.571111113M. Baron2.255690LSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak2.001311118113M. Baron1.7315951182WSep 18 · 22:35A. Szurgot3.75811961M. Baron1.2511211113LSep 18 · 21:00K. Durak1.361110911113M. Baron2.8581211372WSep 18 · 20:05I. Szymanski2.639490M. Baron1.441111113WSep 18 · 19:20J. Kaczmarek1.6751191352M. Baron2.101191111113
G. Marud10
LSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113LSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud1.8611611742P. Kurek1.80911711113LSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460LSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113WSep 16 · 24:10G. Marud2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.503880WSep 15 · 22:35G. Marud1.4011117113G. Jurowicz2.75741111LSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561WSep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.1011117133J. Pruszkowski1.679711111WSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891
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