TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.09
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115911116711
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched — 66.4% is still 66.4%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
66.4%
66.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
811115911116711
H2H Mariusz Baron 3–13 Pawel Kurek Mariusz Baron has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:55What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (58%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Kurek
Correct
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1290 vs Kurek 1391
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Kurek 40%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -3 · Kurek +1
Baron
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.09 / Kurek 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kurek)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13159156
Baron2.09
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 185 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 249
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Kurek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 214 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it84% 149 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron2wins
AwayKurek8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaronn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKurek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron2Kurek8n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S2Baron3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S3Baron3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Baron3Kurek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronKurekB − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.437.1−4.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime868 / 1812 vs 420 / 83347.9%50.4%868 / 1812 vs 420 / 833Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekBaron 2.09/Kurek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron4311813113P. Kurek325111151
LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron184680P. Kurek331111113
LAug 14 · 23:20M. Baron33711781P. Kurek3811511113
LAug 14 · 17:20M. Baron258980P. Kurek331111113
LAug 3 · 04:20M. Baron2491050P. Kurek341112113
WAug 2 · 18:45M. Baron4071111113P. Kurek32117951
LJul 3 · 15:00M. Baron219570P. Kurek331111113
LJun 16 · 23:45M. Baron347111061P. Kurek4211812113
LJun 16 · 18:30M. Baron4912991182P. Kurek501011117113
LJun 11 · 24:25M. Baron3751011111P. Kurek4411128133
M. Baron10
LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102LSep 19 · 01:25R. Szymik1.571111113M. Baron2.255690LSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak2.001311118113M. Baron1.7315951182WSep 18 · 22:35A. Szurgot3.75811961M. Baron1.2511211113LSep 18 · 21:00K. Durak1.361110911113M. Baron2.8581211372WSep 18 · 20:05I. Szymanski2.639490M. Baron1.441111113WSep 18 · 19:20J. Kaczmarek1.6751191352M. Baron2.101191111113WSep 18 · 17:20K. Hetnar1.5091090M. Baron2.501112113LSep 18 · 16:35K. Durak1.361210911113M. Baron3.00101211642WSep 18 · 15:00L. Oracz1.614101181M. Baron2.2011126113
P. Kurek10
WSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660LSep 18 · 06:45P. Kurek1.80871141M. Adamus1.9011119113LSep 18 · 05:35P. Kurek1.668970Y. Fomin2.001111113LSep 18 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.5511118113P. Kurek1.45331171WSep 18 · 03:35P. Kurek2.1511611113P. Polok1.60811591WSep 17 · 13:55P. Kurek1.1711811113I. Szymanski4.50811621LSep 17 · 12:40P. Kurek1.2071111732K. Kowalski4.33116511113WSep 17 · 11:25P. Kurek2.3831111113P. Gumulinski1.53117761WSep 17 · 10:10L. Oracz1.7381111582P. Kurek2.00116811113LSep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.53811951W. Ptak2.3811711113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron
Sep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.25P. Adamus1.57—Sep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05W. Urban1.66—Sep 20 · 21:30M. Baron2.20G. Marud1.60—Sep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.88O. Vincenec1.67—Sep 21 · 24:20M. Baron1.93W. Urban1.63—Sep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.16P. Kurek1.50—Sep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.88O. Vincenec1.67—Sep 21 · 03:30M. Baron2.07G. Marud1.55—Sep 21 · 04:20M. Baron2.21P. Adamus1.47—
P. Kurek
Sep 20 · 19:10P. Kurek1.80G. Marud1.86—Sep 20 · 19:55P. Kurek1.95P. Adamus1.76—Sep 20 · 21:55P. Kurek1.60O. Vincenec2.10—Sep 20 · 22:40P. Kurek1.71W. Urban2.00—Sep 20 · 23:30P. Kurek1.69G. Marud1.86—Sep 21 · 01:10P. Kurek1.50M. Baron2.16—Sep 21 · 01:55P. Kurek1.91P. Adamus1.65—Sep 21 · 03:55P. Kurek1.52O. Vincenec2.12—Sep 21 · 04:40P. Kurek1.60W. Urban1.98—
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