TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 20Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117811117116
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
811117811117116
H2H Mariusz Baron 23–18 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-18 in 41
Baron
Correct
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1274 vs Adamus 1436
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 40% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -4 · Adamus +1
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.10 / Adamus 1.65
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Adamus)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13163762
Baron2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 185 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 249
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 130
Adamus1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 205 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it99% 101 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it78% 156 of 199
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron50%2 of 4
AwayAdamus33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Baron8Adamus2n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S3Baron7Adamus3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S4Baron3Adamus6n = 9Adamus took 6 of 9
S5Baron3Adamus3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronAdamusB − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.343.4+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime868 / 1813 vs 373 / 67447.9%55.3%868 / 1813 vs 373 / 674Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusBaron 2.10/Adamus 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 24:45M. Baron4851181592P. Adamus531171113113
WAug 28 · 15:55M. Baron60713179143P. Adamus6011111511122
WAug 28 · 09:55M. Baron4291111113P. Adamus31118661
WAug 20 · 06:00M. Baron44511116113P. Adamus4611891172
LAug 11 · 16:20M. Baron531113810112P. Adamus514111112133
LAug 11 · 06:45M. Baron31581171P. Adamus4211119113
WJul 19 · 07:10M. Baron4181111113P. Adamus31118841
WJul 14 · 06:45M. Baron381311143P. Adamus29116120
LJul 13 · 01:55M. Baron4211118482P. Adamus50891111113
WJul 12 · 19:55M. Baron5411111110113P. Adamus4161351252
M. Baron10
LSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102LSep 19 · 01:25R. Szymik1.571111113M. Baron2.255690LSep 18 · 23:20J. Nowak2.001311118113M. Baron1.7315951182WSep 18 · 22:35A. Szurgot3.75811961M. Baron1.2511211113LSep 18 · 21:00K. Durak1.361110911113M. Baron2.8581211372WSep 18 · 20:05I. Szymanski2.639490M. Baron1.441111113WSep 18 · 19:20J. Kaczmarek1.6751191352M. Baron2.101191111113WSep 18 · 17:20K. Hetnar1.5091090M. Baron2.501112113LSep 18 · 16:35K. Durak1.361210911113M. Baron3.00101211642
P. Adamus10
WSep 20 · 19:55P. Adamus1.77111011113P. Kurek1.95712861WSep 20 · 17:55P. Adamus1.571112113O. Vincenec2.2591090LSep 19 · 14:20P. Adamus2.25712651W. Wojtaszczyk1.57111011113WSep 19 · 12:40P. Mecik2.5099100P. Adamus1.501111123LSep 19 · 11:50P. Polok1.53111169113P. Adamus2.3895111172WSep 19 · 11:00P. Adamus1.6711711113W. Buczynski2.10811461LSep 19 · 09:50P. Adamus1.20101161162W. Jozala4.33129119113WSep 18 · 08:35P. Adamus1.73111110113O. Vincenec2.00861291LSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus1.61871161J. Pelka2.2011116113LSep 18 · 05:40P. Adamus1.57119118122W. Urban2.25811911143
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron
Sep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05W. Urban1.68—Sep 20 · 21:30M. Baron2.20G. Marud1.60—Sep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.90O. Vincenec1.80—Sep 21 · 24:20M. Baron1.93W. Urban1.63—Sep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.16P. Kurek1.50—Sep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.88O. Vincenec1.67—Sep 21 · 03:30M. Baron2.07G. Marud1.55—Sep 21 · 04:20M. Baron2.21P. Adamus1.47—
P. Adamus
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