TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811611––––
Wojciech Urban
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
511811611––––
H2H Grzegorz Marud 60–55 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 55 of their 115 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Urban beat Marud 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (54%)
Marud
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
60-55 in 115
Marud
Wrong
gap of 5 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1438 vs Urban 1340
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Urban 40%
Marud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Urban 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +1 · Urban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.65 / Urban 1.90
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Marud)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13165999
Marud1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 130 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it71% 105 of 148
Urban1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 211 of 518
Down 0–1, comes back19% 54 of 284
Down 0–2, comes back7% 11 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud5wins
AwayUrban5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud83.3%5 of 6
AwayUrban100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud6Urban4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Marud5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S3Marud4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S4Marud3Urban4n = 7Urban took 4 of 7
S5Marud2Urban2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudUrbanM − UBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.837.2+0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime651 / 1371 vs 773 / 164047.5%47.1%651 / 1371 vs 773 / 1640Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.65/Urban 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 18:20G. Marud199460W. Urban331111113
LSep 1 · 03:55G. Marud4491111672W. Urban44118311113
WAug 31 · 21:55G. Marud331111113W. Urban141490
LAug 31 · 01:30G. Marud311155101W. Urban4391111123
WAug 30 · 19:30G. Marud521191011113W. Urban4261112852
LAug 25 · 04:40G. Marud3691111232W. Urban46118511113
LAug 24 · 22:40G. Marud2613580W. Urban371511113
WAug 24 · 04:40G. Marud44111111113W. Urban37871391
WAug 23 · 22:40G. Marud43111110113W. Urban30361291
WAug 4 · 01:30G. Marud501171110113W. Urban4681181272
G. Marud10
WSep 21 · 03:30G. Marud1.9011611123M. Baron1.802119101WSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932LSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113WSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113LSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113LSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud1.8611611742P. Kurek1.80911711113LSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460LSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113
W. Urban10
LSep 21 · 03:05P. Adamus1.56111111113W. Urban2.05813471LSep 21 · 01:30W. Urban1.658112101O. Vincenec1.9111711123WSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192WSep 20 · 22:40W. Urban2.0081111113P. Kurek1.71118651LSep 20 · 21:05P. Adamus1.661112113W. Urban2.1041060LSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102LSep 20 · 19:30W. Urban1.76111481162O. Vincenec1.95916112113WSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460WSep 20 · 08:45W. Urban1.9311711113W. Pytlas1.77911361WSep 20 · 07:10W. Urban1.8311911113M. Adamus1.83911881
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