TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1126111191210––
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:22 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
1126111191210––
H2H Grzegorz Marud 104–102 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 102 of their 206 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Marud beat Baron 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
104-102 in 206
Marud
Correct
gap of 2 in 206, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1420 vs Baron 1313
Marud
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Baron 40%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Baron +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.90 / Baron 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marud)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13165995
Marud1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 129 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back22% 38 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 103
Baron1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 204 of 372
Up 2–0, closes it82% 97 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it68% 145 of 214
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud6wins
AwayBaron4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud50%4 of 8
AwayBaronn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud8Baron2n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S2Marud3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Marud5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Marud5Baron3n = 8Marud took 5 of 8
S5Marud4Baron3n = 7Marud took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudBaronM − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.541.7+0.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime651 / 1372 vs 872 / 182047.5%47.9%651 / 1372 vs 872 / 1820Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.90/Baron 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 21:30G. Marud42361111113M. Baron4511115992
WSep 7 · 03:05G. Marud331111113M. Baron235990
LSep 6 · 21:05G. Marud301110541M. Baron3951211113
WAug 3 · 03:05G. Marud44541113113M. Baron45111151172
WAug 2 · 21:05G. Marud49111179113M. Baron4779111192
LJul 20 · 03:05G. Marud3711391132M. Baron44411117113
WJul 19 · 21:05G. Marud491110611113M. Baron4371211852
LJul 13 · 03:05G. Marud47119511112M. Baron47411118133
WJul 12 · 21:05G. Marud361211133M. Baron29108110
LJul 7 · 01:50G. Marud58117119202M. Baron55711411223
G. Marud10
LSep 21 · 02:20G. Marud1.655860W. Urban1.901111113WSep 21 · 24:45G. Marud1.85971111113P. Adamus1.8511115932LSep 20 · 23:30G. Marud1.7711350P. Kurek1.931311113WSep 20 · 22:20P. Adamus1.7551341692G. Marud1.9511111114113WSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113LSep 20 · 20:45G. Marud1.661211781O. Vincenec2.05101311113LSep 20 · 19:10G. Marud1.8611611742P. Kurek1.80911711113LSep 20 · 18:20W. Urban1.951111113G. Marud1.769460LSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113
M. Baron10
LSep 21 · 04:20P. Adamus1.47111311123M. Baron2.219158101WSep 21 · 02:45M. Baron1.881111123O. Vincenec1.6748100WSep 21 · 01:10M. Baron2.161111113P. Kurek1.507560LSep 21 · 24:20W. Urban1.78111116113M. Baron1.9311571192LSep 20 · 23:05M. Baron1.901281111132O. Vincenec1.801011213153LSep 20 · 21:30M. Baron1.9511115992G. Marud1.70361111113WSep 20 · 20:20M. Baron2.05711911123W. Urban1.68116113102WSep 20 · 18:45M. Baron2.10811811113P. Adamus1.6511711762LSep 20 · 17:30M. Baron2.0981191172P. Kurek1.53115116113LSep 19 · 02:10I. Szymanski3.751111136123M. Baron1.251391111102
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